03/05/2009 大盘回顾 （Overbought）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are OVERBOUGHT

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, topped? 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: *overbought. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: *overbought. T2122 4wk New High/Low Ratio: *overbought. See chart here. CONCLUSION *Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L breakeven Reversal Bar 02/26 L *03/03 low *Adjust Stop Loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ IWM ChiOsc too high. CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING CANADA FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS   ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL GOLD DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low. BOND

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: RISE TO 03/08 THEN PULLBACK TO 03/16?

 

关于中期的看法没有改变，还是根据II Survey，看correction的人太多，所以会大反弹。目前看，可能出新高，然后才是真正的correction。看下面图的红线标示，只有一次例外（粗红线），大盘一路上涨，没有correction。

 

 

不过，我认为这次是又一次例外的可能性不大，理由是so far这次rally其实是自去年3月以来最弱的一次，用了19天时间on flat volume却不能收复此前13天的跌幅。对比一下去年7月的rally就知道了，差别很明显。结论是上升的momentum正在减弱，下一次的correction会比这次的大。

 

 

Still Think Around March 6 is Important and 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，最近反反复复提到的cycle due date，下周是骡子是马就要拉出来遛遛了。基本上目前看起来应该是top。技术上也支持top说，后面的short-term session会提到大盘overbought了。

 

 

另外，统计上，non farm payroll day大涨，通常下周会跌回来，这个比较符合6.4.6 Weekday Seasonality Watch。周五的After Bell Quick Summary已经提过，看蓝色框框，前一周all weekday up的话，最近的pattern看，至少下一周不会大涨。

 

 

下面的table是根据Gann Emblem tool对今后几个关键时间点的计算列表。看起来，03/08，03/16以及04/11左右的Gann day重合的很多，因此这三个时间点都可能是转折点。目前比较合理的猜测是大盘从03/08 pullback至03/16左右。1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，顺便提一下，除了Gann day说03/16重要以外，03/15是New Moon，也是potential turn date，此外，03/16也是FOMC day。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: OVERBOUGHT

 

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights，所有short-term momentum indicator都overbought了，短期应该有回调。

 

 

看一下2个my favorite overbought signals，都是非常reliable的。

 

2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator.

 

 

T2122 – 4wk New High/Low Ratio.

 

 

Sentimentrader的STEM model很有意思，给大家看一下，似乎很难得overbought。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

lite1067

蛇老你太超人了。upgrade网站之余还有长篇大论。。谢谢。

terranmn

lite1067

BD1

lite1067

蛇大的大Ben图像又回来了！！！！

BD2

xiaoyaoxl

这么晚还有报告看，老蛇辛苦了

BD3

海神

顶

vicvic

floor

PacificLegend

hutong9

mab

Thanks Ban Zhang!

新低手

期盼回调

skipjack

thanks Cobra, first post in new hutong

ZZzz2000

ut1984

thresh74

老大的新头像太酷啦。 Thanks a lot for the good analysis

btmarket

Ding!

WeedOnWall

JL01

quickcow

第一份心胡同老蛇报告。