请注意共同基金烧掉现金的速度有多快！（图中 F 点 到 G 点）在过去的一年，随着道指的上涨，共同基金的现金水平在不到 12个月的时间里由 6% 跌到 3.6% ，并逼近 2007 年创造的历史最低水平 （图中 I 点）。设想一下，共同基金用了近 7 年的时间从 2001 年到 2007 年 （图中 H 到 I ）才使现金水平从 6.5% 下降到 3.5%。 而在 2007 年底的顶部之前，它们用了 10 年的时间 从 1991 年现金的高点 12% 下降到 2000 年的低点 4% （ 图中 J 到 K）而道指在 1999 年底达到高峰。 进一步回朔时间到 70 年代中期，共同基金在很短的时间段里投入大量现金，（图中 L 到 M）恰好在市场出现重要的顶部之前。 那么一个重要问题是共同基金是否要在另一个牛市周期展开之前重新积累现金水平，还是要出现长期的区间波动，正像在60 年代中期到 80 年代早期所见的一样？
原文：
Notice how fast Mutual Funds have burned up their Cash (points F to G) in the past year as the Dow has rallied with the Cash Levels dropping from 6% to 3.6% in just under 12 months as the previous all time low made in 2007 (point I) is getting closer. Keep in mind it took nearly 7 years for the % of Mutual Fund Cash to drop from 6.5% to 3.5% from 2001 through 2007 (points H to I) prior to the late 2007 top and 10 years to go from a high of 12% in 1991 to the low of 4% in 2000 (points J to K) as the Dow peaked in late 1999. Furthermore going even further back to the early to mid 1970's Mutual Funds went through a lot of there Cash in a short period of time as well (points L to M) right before a significant market top occurred. Thus the big question is will the Mutual Funds have to rebuild their Cash Levels before another Secular Bull Market can develop and will a longer term trading range occur like we saw from the mid 1960's through the early 1980's?
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发表于 2010-3-1 04:55 PM
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发表于 2010-3-1 05:49 PM
good post!!!
