九号胡同

 找回密码
 注册
搜索
查看: 1066|回复: 5

[讨论] 2010 Pull back vs. 2009 Pull back vs. 2004 Pull back?

[复制链接]

0

主题

74

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-30 06:15 PM |显示全部楼层








本帖最后由 intral 于 2010-1-30 19:28 编辑

仅供参考。感觉现在的回调幅度应该比2009七月的回调幅度大。击穿Weekly 20MA, 甚至50MA。当20MA 接近50MA 的时候可能才是回调的终点。但是中间应该有反弹。1150很可能是上半年的高点,但未必是全年的高点。

SPY_2009_07_PULLBACK.png


SPY_2010_PULLBACK.png

0

主题

74

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-30 07:59 PM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 intral 于 2010-1-30 19:09 编辑

Here is another chart: 2004 Pull back.  Weekly 60 MA was the pull back target then, and 20 MA was very close to 60 MA in October 2004, which is probably a good point to long in 2004 (August 2004 was lower, but it was risky to long there.  October confirmed the low in August 2004, so it was better).  

SPY_2004_PULLBACK.png
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

74

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-30 08:09 PM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 intral 于 2010-1-30 19:16 编辑

This is a discussion note.  Don't take my words for it.  YMYD.  I just want to share some of my thoughts and learn from others.

Some of the 野鸡 FA behind this pull back estimate:

(1) Many analysts expect good Q1 and Q2.  So can the market turn to the south now like last year?  I seriously doubt it.  So Market probably will not go south without stop.  It's normal pull back.

(2) Q3 and Q4 are uncertain.  Last year's bull market was propelled by goverment efforts and short of inventory.  Now what will happen after the inventory is filled and goverments start to think about stopping the stimulus package.

(3) US mid-term election is also an factor.  I didn't study the effect of mid-term election on stock market.  Perhaps someone can help.

With these, I think the first half this year is going to be a choppy market.  We will see a clearer picture at the second half of this year.
回复

使用道具 举报

44

主题

63

好友

2万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-31 02:23 AM |显示全部楼层
请问,我为什么在freestockcharts.com看不到spy 2004年的日线图?  多谢。
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

74

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-31 10:08 AM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 intral 于 2010-1-31 09:38 编辑

4# quickcow
我也看不到spy 2004年的日线图。These are weekly chart.
回复

使用道具 举报

25

主题

43

好友

2万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2010-1-31 10:13 AM |显示全部楼层
thanks!

视一切现象如梦。
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

手机版|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2019-12-13 06:17 PM , Processed in 0.101719 second(s), 23 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X2.5

© 2001-2012 Comsenz Inc.

回顶部