12/29/2009 大盘回顾 （Bearish Reversal Day）

Cobra

Summary:

More evidences point to a short-term top coming.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Up	Neutral		II Survey: Historical low number of bears. 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?
Short-term	Up	Neutral		0.0.9 CPC/CPCI: Topped? 1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps. 12/23 Recap: Too many bearish extremes. 12/29 Recap: *Bearish reversal day.
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model	12/21 L		Breakeven
Reversal Bar	12/21 L	*Adjust Stop Loss	12/24 Low
NYMO Sell
VIX ENV
Other Signals	12/28 S		2xATR(10)	2% stop for SPY, 4% for 2xETF.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BREAKOUT BUT I'M NOT CONVINCED

 

没新鲜的，breakout but I'm not convinced，详见12/24/2009 Market Recap。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK SOON

 

没啥说的，还是看short-term pullback，两个新证据：

 

1. SPY Bearish Reversal Day，看看以后都发生了啥。

 

2. 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，看起来像是cycle top。

 

最新的Indicators At Extremes from www.sentimentrader.com，bearish extremes还是很high。 

 

The bottom line，毋庸置疑，介是uptrend，而Santa Rally suppose到1/5/2010才结束，所以熊熊想碰碰运气可以，不过小心又给砍了爪子，呵呵。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

summer123

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summer123

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busywind

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cat888

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surya

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windy

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风清扬

ddr

always

THANKS!

Ave

还是小心为上。我在忍忍吧...

oda

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碧海潮生

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rabishh

1st page ?

rabishh

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rabishh

good still 1st page

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Jeff

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