牛牛的一点忧虑

polopolo

现在的局势是：

股市好，房市一般，就业差，奥八声望差。

奥八就关心一点，怎么让自己的声望起来。提高就业率是一条好办法。可是连猪都知道就业率很难上去。要是就业率不行，经济还得沉下去。那时，声望就更差了。

除非花大钱，这不，放出5000亿second stimulus的风声来了。还要弄个好名头，说是Job stimulus。

问题是，现在股市好，又是green shoot又是V recovery的，stimulus师出无名。

除非再来一次恐慌。

wxp

是啊，利好出尽的感觉。

菜刀

凡事都有定数，股市就是掏钱的地方
跟经济无关，股票是投资工具，说白了就像老虎机，涨到定数了，就跌。
就是不知道定数是什么

dividend_growth

abaqus

Jobless is lag index. Please look at past 20 year data

polopolo

为什么Job是lagging index？无它， credit expansion，所以你不需要工作来扩大消费。现在credit是expansion 还是 contraction？

wxp

失业率近年来已不再是一个单一的lagging indicator了，无他，现在美国经济70%+靠个人消费，有越来越多的公司在规划企业生产计划时参考失业率作为市场强弱的信号，所以失业率正逐渐地被赋予了leading indicator 的角色，这在二十年前是没有的事。

usamonkey

Jobless is lag index. Please look at past 20 year data
abaqus 发表于 2009-11-13 18:47

how do you know now is peak already, maybe next year it will go to 12%.

abaqus

how do you know now is peak already, maybe next year it will go to 12%.
usamonkey 发表于 2009-11-13 20:37

The real number is 16% now. but you will see the market keeps moving higher. The big hands have too much free money from 08M. The best thing for them to do is pushing market higher to make more money for themselves since the reduced loan application & credit market.  One day when US stops printing green paper, the market will down and down hard.  For Bear, we have to wait for the US dollar bottom out.