11/02/2009 大盘回顾 （Bulls got all the bottom signals, so?）

Cobra

Summary:

Could be a substantial rebound coming. If not then things are different now, a primary wave 3 down could have started.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	*Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model		*Short if 11/02 low was taken.		Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar
NYMO Sell	10/21 S	*Adjust Stop Loss	*10/29 High
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND COMING

 

The bottom line，还是6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch，5天内2个Major Distribution Day，意味着more correction ahead。不过注意看图，如果在第2个Major Distribution Day后是个green day的话，那此后多半大反弹先，所以熊熊要小心。

 

除了上面提到的post Major Distribution Day的pattern以外，还有几个market could be bottomed的理由：

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，After Bell Quick Summary里提到过，可能是个cycle low。

 

1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals，NAADV，NAUPV，NADNV的位置在以前都意味着bottom。此外，今天NDX又hold above important support，因此非常有bottom的可能。

 

VIX的pattern也值得注意，整个棒棒都在BB以外的，至少前两次是exactly the market bottom。

 

综合以上理由，market could be bottomed here，expect大反弹。如果没有反弹，或者反弹的力度不够的话，那牛牛就要小心了，可能indeed this time is different，按不少wave派newsletter的说法，the primary wave 3 down has started。此外，如果今天的low broken的话，俺的SPY ST Model将是short信号，这个model目前的成功率是62%。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE REBOUND

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，今天www.stockcharts.com的SPY intraday chart有点问题，不过还是能清楚地看到lots of positive divergence，因此expect more rebound。不过so far从图上俺也没有看到啥bottom pattern，因此也不能排除还有一个小dip的可能。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

stockgirl

   First time sofa!

yaobooyao

抢个位子先。
原来是双人沙发！

今天两位老大的短、中期趋势看法有分歧，可见市场的状况。

bucks

front seats

49north

reply

michaelzhang

happyface

thanks

michaelzhang

frank

newbee168

first page, hehe

牛二买刀

jzj

reks

1st page. Been waiting for this. Thanks.

abaqus

1st page!Thanks,

Diver

Summary:

Could be a substantial rebound coming. If not then things are different now, a primary wave 3 down could have started.



 
TREND
MOMENTUM
EMOTION
COMMENT - Sample  ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-11-2 21:10

风清扬

RedCedar

1st page ? Thanks Cobra!

墙头草

dddd

oldfox

Thanks

风信子

1st page!