有关大盘(SP500)的一些看点

stringzero

有点啰嗦，见地还是有底。。。。

    * S&P 500 bouncing off its 50 day moving average
    * near term, we could get a move down to that MA
    * around 1045-1050 which is a converging support area
    * the trendline from March and July lows also meets in that area
    * this area will act like magnet to draw market lower
    * volume is sending a clear message: weakness on upside and more strength on downside
    * S&P 500 tried several times to clear the 1100 level
    * it has approached that level on contracting volume
    * but volume expands on downside days
    * this telling us demand weakening and selling more intense
    * so the market is gearing up for a correction
    * last short term pullback occurred in late Sept to early October
    * that began with a downside reversal day
    * this is when the market made new high then wasn’t able to sustain it and made a new low



    * we did that again last week on Wednesday
    * on chart looks like an upside down hammer candlestick
    * last time, downside reversal was for an 8 day decline and fell 4.5%
    * if this happens again, will take S&P to 1020-1030 level
    * which is close to the early October low as well as previous mentioned support levels
    * at that level, if short term measures are oversold, that would be a good time to go long
    * breadth momentum important: how many stocks participating in a move
    * also if % above 10 MA - when/if this goes down to 10% or less
    * finally the 14 day stochastic - another momentum metric which measures strength behind move
    * there is no strong evidence that the equity market is forming a top
    * we are still in the midst of primary uptrend
    * these highs est. in October do not represent end of primary uptrend
    * recently the Selling Pressure Index was at a new low
    * typically when market is forming major top, Selling Pressure Index will move higher
    * but when it is so low this is not probable
    * Primary Buying Zone: first of 3 zones in uptrend
    * represents the dynamic phase of rally
    * March low - shot higher off spring low
    * most stocks participate in rally and where most gains are, reap most profits
    * this is an indiscriminate context where almost all stocks rise
    * then we transition to Holding & Upgrading Zone
    * here selling pressure increase even as buying power is rising
    * investors then have to be more careful and picky
    * according to market sentiment traders are complacent
    * put call ratios reacted at in the middle of last week’s decline but still complacent

This isn’t surprising if you’ve been reading the blog these past few weeks. The market has given us technical reasons why it is about to stumble. For example, its distance from the 200 moving average. As well, there are indications from the sentiment data that there is enough complacency to awaken one’s contrarian instinct.

by Lowry Research

xnz

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ChuChu888

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mwhm7812

谢谢。

cowboy11

cheyenne

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stonehorse

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