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[转贴] When is the Fed going to raise rates

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发表于 2009-10-26 08:17 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


This week’s chart graphs the Fed Funds Target Rate (Orange line) versus the headline unemployment figure (Green line.) The white boxes on the graph correspond to the past seven U.S. economic downturns. The important take away from the chart is the relationship between the Fed’s mentality toward raising the Fed funds target in the face of the unemployment figure. During these previous recessions, the Federal Reserve has never reversed course and raised rates while unemployment was rising. It is important to note that the time frame between the peak of the unemployment rate and the time it took for the Fed to begin raising rates has varied given the differing environments during each recession. In all likelihood, it is safe to say that while unemployment continues to expand, the Fed will be on hold for the short-term future.

Fed.gif
发表于 2009-10-26 09:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
FED的功能就是:ECONOMY GROWTH & EMPLOYMENT,考SERIE 6都要考的,这两个不行,就不能涨息,现在防风给中国RMB升值,其实就是做交易。 美国不涨息,中国不升值。 否则都玩蛋
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2009-10-27 05:42 AM | 显示全部楼层
Besides growth and employment - what about inflation?

This time Fed is out of ammo - 0 interest yet unemployment is almost 10% and rising. The inflation is not bad only because of the poor economy. This is not to say we won't have inflation in the future. Once inflation comes back in a few years - what can Fed do?

'No rate below 3%' should be written in Fed's guide book long time ago.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2009-10-27 10:32 AM | 显示全部楼层
thx
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