09/28/2009 大盘回顾 （Is up on light volume bearish?）

Cobra

Summary:

Up on light volume is not bearish at least recently.

Bullish Abandon Baby was formed on QQQQ, IWM daily chart.

The bear's only chance is US$ which could be up tomorrow.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Up	Neutral
Short-term	Up*	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	TRADE	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
SPX Major Swing	08/21	Buy next open	09/25 Low*	Win: 41%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.9, Ann Return/Trade: 55% yr
NYMO Sell	09/23	Sell next open	09/25 High	Short-term play. Stopped out on 09/28 with gain.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

Bottom line，1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，在BPSPX，NYA200R and NYHILO都是record high的情况下，还预期大盘要大涨特涨，需要点想象力。

 

SHORT-TERM: UP，BEAR'S ONLY CHANCE IS THE US$.

 

今天肯定有人会说volume很小，因此suspicious，下面的绿线是SPY percent change to volume percent change ratio，青色的棒棒是绿线比较高，也就是说up huge on light volume时的情况，好像此后都还有不小的涨幅哈。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily)，Bullish Abandon Baby，up 70% of the time。

 

以上，加上After Bell Quick Summary提及的CPCI and ISEE Index，看起来牛牛姿态不错。不过，熊熊明天有一个希望，那就是US$。

 

3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min)，这个看起来是比较Bullish的pattern。此外，3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)，金子的黑棒棒也意味着UUP明天涨的几率比较高。

 

Overall，俺认为短期上涨的几率比较大，米金的动向有待于进一步观察。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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