09/25/2009 大盘回顾 （Testing Support）

Cobra

Summary:

SPY sits above multiple supports. Whether the market will repeat 8/17 again remains to be seen.

CPCE top signal not confirmed.

Cycle turn date is due, looks like a bottom.

The only doubt for bulls are lots of still at record high Bullish Percent Index readings.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Up	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	TRADE	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
SPX Major Swing	08/21	Buy next open	09/10 Low -	Win: 41%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.9, Ann Return/Trade: 55% yr
NYMO Sell	09/23	Sell next open	*09/25 High +	Short-term play, Win: 52%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.3, Ann Return/Trade: 174% yr

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: AT CRITICAL POINT, TO UP OR TO DOWN? I HAVE NO IDEA.

 

Bottom line，现在看上去有很像09/03/2009 Market Recap: Some positive signals的setup，除了VIX ENV还没有买信号以外。Paid services也分成两派，一派认为大跌开始，另一派则认为还有一冲。那，到底Market何去何从，I have no idea，看下周吧。

 

1. 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，周五收在multiple support上，反弹是expected，跌破向下，牛牛仍然有多道防线。

 

2. 2.8.0 SPX:CPCE，trend line没有hold，因此top signal没有确认。

 

3. 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，a cycle is due，看着像是bottom。

 

以上都是对牛牛有利的因素。唯一对牛牛不friendly的是5.0.5 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index I (Weekly) and 5.0.6 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index II (Weekly)，很多record high并没有得到修正。在这种情况下，还预期大盘要大涨特涨，是需要点想象力。

 

SHORT-TERM: A FEW POSITIVE DIVERGENCES

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，这个看一下吧，positive divergence很多，加上After Bell Quick Summary的CPCI，加上“Sell on Rosh Hashanah, Buy on Yom Kippur”，因此周一的Yom Kippur反弹的可能还是挺大的。

 

Seasonality from www.sentimentrader.com，9月的最后几天还是比较bull friendly的。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

quickcow

我靠， 久违了的沙发。

soulvirus

2nd

thx

quickcow

我在占个位子。

quickcow

想老熊一样，继续。。。

knz98

impresario100

happyface

lake3peat

thanks!

xiaofengfeng

lwmm

ding

gear

Thanks

ROOKIE2

thanks

epsom

Thanks and click.

jackyking

NewMember

Ding

jackyking

Cobra, 0.0.2 Full STO should be oversold, not overbought, right?

rosyrosy

Thank you!

jackyking

Index seasonality can only be used as a reference. Beginning of Sept should be bear friendly according to this chart but SPX rallied 30 pints or so.

acura