Citi's Cost of Smaller Government
By PETER EAVIS
Investors make big mistakes when they obsess over a single issue.
With Citigroup, that issue is the government's 33.6% stake and how fast the bank might be able to get rid of it.
That subject has returned to the fore amid reports that Citi is considering ways of paring the government stake. While that is a key issue, there are other aspects to the Citi story that could materially affect the direction of the stock.
Sure, it would be nice for shareholders to wake up and find the government gone, removing fears, hitherto unfounded, that the bank will be subject to value-destroying political interference. But the shareholder benefits of quickly eradicating government stakes likely would be outweighed by the financial costs. The concern isn't so much the stock-price impact of the government selling existing common shares, even though such sales could weigh on the share price short term.
The bigger question is whether to pay off the government's $27 billion of trust-preferred securities, which have characteristics of both debt and equity, and cost about $2 billion a year to service. If Citi wanted to pay down, say, $20 billion of these with proceeds from a new common-stock issue, it would be about 20% dilutive to existing shareholders, given that Citi's market value is $97 billion.
Also, investors need to ask why Citi management isn't broadcasting what would be a more positive message: It doesn't need to dilute investors further, and it believes it has the medium-term profitability to pay off the government trust-preferred securities with internally generated capital.
Indeed, one of the things Citi executives need to do is explain more clearly where it expects to make its money and concentrate resources in the future. For instance, in which U.S. consumer businesses does Citi think it will beat larger rivals Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase or Bank of America? And will it need to reinvest in certain businesses within Citi Holdings, the entity that contains a hodgepodge of assets, some of which carry significant credit risk?
Answering such questions could help give Citi shares another leg up. Their recent resurgence is justified, because the bank appears to have enough tangible common equity, or TCE, to weather losses. Its TCE, after deals and bringing assets onto the balance sheet, is equivalent to about 5.1% of tangible assets, one of the strongest ratios in the sector. Yet Citi's shares trade at a slight discount to TCE per share, whereas Bank of America, which also carries political risk, trades at about 1.5 times.
Starting to reduce the government stake in Citi may close some of that valuation gap. But persuading investors that Citi still has powerful enough franchises to go head to head with Wells or J.P. Morgan in important products would do a lot more for the stock. |