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ZT， 为W还是V的争论添砖加瓦，也为想买／卖 RE 的邻居提供点信息。
Thank you Uncle Sam
by John Burns
Several months ago, we told our clients we thought we were entering a "W" shaped recovery, with the "first leg up" in the W driven by four things:
1, Tremendous affordability for those who are currently paying rent,
2, The $8,000 federal tax credit, which is currently set to expire on 11/30/09,
3, Government-backed FHA, USDA, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae lending programs that offer far more aggressive loans than a bank would make, and
4, Positive media reports about rising median home prices, which are primarily driven by a location mix shift away from the poorer areas of town, but also driven by price stability at the lower end of the market.
Since then, sales volumes and pricing have stabilized in many areas. Our monthly survey covering about 2,000 new home communities (and available for free to all participating home builders) shows that:
Sales rates have stabilized at about 1.5 sales/month/community,
Prices net of incentives are relatively flat in California, Texas, the Northeast and the Midwest, and primarily at the lower price ranges in most areas,
Standing inventory per community has fallen from 6.0 homes last July to 3.2 homes today, and
Builders are starting more homes per community than they have in a long time.
(Email us here if you would like to be a part of our builder survey)
However, traffic through the sales offices remains low, and most of the buyers are first-time buyers motivated by the $8,000 tax credit and monthly payments that are comparable to their rent. Without the tax credit, sales and pricing would still be declining.
Our best estimate is that sales slow substantially in December and throughout the first quarter of next year because of the demand "pulled forward" by the tax credit, and that the market stabilizes when job growth turns positive, which will hopefully be next spring or summer. The recovery will be driven by the pace of job growth, mortgage rates and decisions made by the government on whether to continue or discontinue the incentive programs.
While we believe there is another leg down, we don't believe that the decline will be that much further, so smart investments made with a long-term perspective should pay off handsomely. With plenty of short-term money chasing deals right now, smart investments are tough to find. Longer-term investments tend to be more appropriately priced.
Economic Growth............................................................................D
The economic growth indicators showed some signs of improvement this month, but still remain weak overall. The preliminary estimates of second-quarter real GDP growth showed an annualized drop of -1.0%, which is a large improvement from the -6.4% decline in the first quarter. There was some positive news in employment this month: the most recent headline unemployment rate declined one-tenth of one percent this month to 9.4%. Although job losses have slowed, the total labor force decreased at a more rapid pace due to workers retiring or giving up looking for employment, resulting in a falling unemployment rate. Regardless, the unemployment rate remains near its highest level since 1983. In addition, the measure of unemployment that includes part-time workers looking for full-time work, declined to 16.3%. The economy has lost 5.7 million payroll jobs in the last 12 months, or approximately 4.2% of the total. Mass layoff events - job cuts of more than 50 jobs - also declined slightly this month, yet have increased 61% year-over-year. The Core CPI (all items less food and energy) declined to 1.5%, while the Full CPI fell to -2.1% in July.
Leading Indicators...........................................................................D
The leading indicators were mixed this month, although many have improved since the beginning of the year. The Leading Economic Index continues to improve, reaching 4.5% in June, which is up from 2.4% in May. Stocks have continued their multi-month rally and, as of the end of July, the S&P 500 had risen 34% from February's lows. Home builder stocks also performed well in July, increasing over 22% in the past month, and have declined just 6% year-over-year. The price of crude oil has trended up since February, but fell 8% in July from June, reaching an average of $64.09 per barrel.
Affordability......................................................................................C
This month, affordability worsened slightly due to a small uptick in median sale home prices. As a result, the housing-cost-to-income ratio increased to 28%, but remains very attractive and is well below the peak of 44% during this housing cycle. The median-home-price-to-income ratio also remains very attractive, currently equal to 3.4 and still below the historical average of 3.7. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.25% by the end of July, but remained above the sub-5% levels experienced in prior months. The share of ARM applications reached 5.4% in the last week of July, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, primarily due to the rise in fixed mortgage rates. However, the share of ARM applications remains extremely low when compared to peak levels above 35% of total loans in early 2005.
Consumer Behavior..........................................................................D-
Consumer behavior deteriorated this month, as Americans became slightly more pessimistic about the U.S. economy. The Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved from March to May, declined for the second straight month, reaching 46.6 in July. Also, both the Consumer Sentiment Index and the Consumer Comfort Index declined in comparison to the previous month. American's personal savings rate continues to skyrocket, reaching 6.9% year-over-year for a total of $769 billion in savings - the highest level since 1993. Since the recession started, the U.S. has been hammered with falling home prices and a crumbling stock market, resulting in a loss of more than $10 trillion of wealth in the past year and equal to a total U.S. net worth of $50.4 trillion in the first quarter of 2009.
Existing Home Market.......................................................................D
Although the existing home market remains extremely weak, a few indicators improved this month. The seasonally adjusted annual resale activity in June increased 3.6% from the previous month to 4.89 million homes, but remained down 0.2% from one year prior, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The median resale home sale price increased in June to $181,600, according to NAR, but has fallen 15% from one year ago. By comparison, the Case-Shiller index, which tracks paired sales, fell a record 19% in the first quarter compared to the beginning of 2008. The supply of unsold homes fell in June to 9.4 months of supply, yet remains high compared to historical levels. The pending home sales volume remained flat compared to the previous month, but increased nearly 7% from one year ago.
New Home Market............................................................................D-
Many indicators in the new home market have improved since last month, but the overall market remains weak. Builder confidence improved in August, following a steady upward trend since reaching bottom in January. The median new home price reversed the gain experienced last month, falling to $206,200, according to the Census Bureau, and has fallen 12% year-over-year. The median new home price can fluctuate greatly month-to-month, as it is dependent on the mix of housing types sold during that period. The seasonally adjusted new home sales volume increased in June compared to May, resulting in 384,000 transactions. The inventory of new homes for sale has trended down since January and is currently at 8.8 months of supply, and the unsold completed homes component of that amount equals 4.0 months of supply.
Housing Supply.............................................................................F
The supply of housing generally increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remains very low compared to history. Seasonally adjusted new home construction starts increased slightly in June, due to the gain in single-family starts. Despite the recent increase, construction levels remain near their lowest level on record since at least 1959. Total permits increased in June as a result of an increase in both single-family and multifamily permits. Seasonally adjusted total permits have fallen 52% year-over-year, however, and remain near their lowest level since the Census Bureau began recording permit statistics in 1960. The annual new home completion volume held steady in June at 818,000 units and has fallen 28% over the last 12 months. Second-quarter homeowner vacancy fell to 2.5%, but remains well above the long-term average of 1.5%.
[All blue color are data from a spreadsheet. To view it in a better format, please go to http://www.realestateconsulting. ... sletter=US/us200908] [can someone teach me how to post a excel file here?]
U.S. HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS
Data Current Through August 17, 2009
Historical Range
Grade* Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Economic Growth D
These are the best indicators of how the economy is currently performing.
Real GDP (annual rate) D+ 2009Q2 -1.0% Rising -10.4% 3.3% 17.4% 1947
Employment Growth (1-year Change)
- Non-ag Payroll, NSA D- Jul, 2009 -5,732,000 Improving -5,800,000 1,487,677 5,243,000 1940
- All Employed People,SA F Jul, 2009 -5,555,000 Declining -5,555,000 1,387,472 5,551,000 1948
Employment Growth Rate
- Non-ag Payroll, NSA D- Jul, 2009 -4.2% Improving -7.6% 2.2% 16.4% 1940
- All Employed People,SA F Jul, 2009 -3.8% Declining -3.8% 1.5% 5.9% 1949
Unemployment Rate F Jul, 2009 9.4% Improving 2.5% 5.6% 10.8% 1948
Mass Layoff Events, SA (YOY % Change) D Jun, 2009 61% Declining -48.1% 8.1% 132.1% 1995
Productivity C 2009Q1 1.6% Rising -10.8% 2.3% 17.5% 1947
Retail Sales F May, 2009 -9.5% Rising -10.6% 4.7% 11.0% 1992
Inflation
Core CPI A- Jul, 2009 1.5% Declining 0.7% 4.0% 13.6% 1958
Full CPI B- Jul, 2009 -2.1% Declining -15.8% 3.4% 23.7% 1914
Personal Income Growth, nominal F May, 2009 0.3% Declining 0.1% 7.2% 14.3% 1960
Federal Deficit (last 12 mos., $mil curr.) F Jun, 2009 -$1,438,101 Increasing -$1,438,101 -$266,382 $342,026 1980
U.S. Immigration as a % of Total Population 2008 0.4% Increasing 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1950
Total Population Growth 2008 1.0% Increasing 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1951
Total Households 2009Q2 112,119,000 Increasing 56,848,000 87,590,185 112,119,000 1965
Owned Households 2009Q2 75,607,000 Increasing 35,728,000 57,387,393 75,896,000 1965
Rented Households 2009Q2 36,512,000 Increasing 21,052,000 30,202,809 36,512,000 1965
Historical Range
Leading Indicators D Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
These have all proven to be predictable early indicators of the direction of economic growth.
Leading Econ. Index (Ann. Growth Rate Last 6 Mos.) C Jun, 2009 4.3% Rising -19.6% 2.5% 18.3% 1959
ECRI Leading Index C Jun, 2009 4.0% Rising -29.7% 1.5% 21.3% 1905
Manpower Net Employment Outlook F 2009Q3 -2% Flat -2% 16% 25% 1989
U.S. Average Hours Worked per Week Jun, 2009 33.0 Declining 33.0 35.3 38.8 1964
Temporary Employed Workers F 2009Q1 -27.9% Increasing -27.9% 5.5% 30.5% 1990
Corporate Profit Growth (pre-tax) F 2009Q1 -18.0% Rising -21.6% 7.7% 56% 1947
Residential Investment as % of GDP (nominal) F 2009Q1 2.7% Declining 2.7% 4.8% 7% 1947
Interest Rate Spread
10-year Treasury Jul, 2009 3.67% Declining 2.29% 6.38% 15.32% 1953
2-year Treasury Jul, 2009 1.14% Declining 0.80% 6.64% 16.47% 1976
Interest Rate Spread B+ Jul, 2009 2.53% Narrowing -2.15% 0.76% 3.39% 1976
3-month LIBOR Jul, 2009 0.52% Declining 0.52% 4.45% 8.75% 1990
3-month Treasury Jul, 2009 0.19% Rising 0.03% 5.17% 14.28% 1982
TED Spread B- Jul, 2009 0.33% Narrowing -0.09% 0.50% 3.41% 1990
Stock Market (Return over last 12 months)
Dow Jones D+ Jul, 2009 -19% Rising -72% 7% 136% 1930
S&P 500 D Jul, 2009 -22% Declining -45% 8% 53% 1950
NASDAQ D+ Jul, 2009 -15% Declining -60% 12% 105% 1984
Wilshire 5000 D Jul, 2009 -22% Declining -44% 8% 45% 1990
S&P Super Homebuilding D+ Jul, 2009 -6% Flat -58% 12% 116% 1994
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Large Firms F 2009Q1 64% Decreasing -24% 10% 84% 1990
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Small Firms F 2009Q1 69% Decreasing -24% 8% 75% 1990
Crude Oil Price (Current $) D+ Jul, 2009 $64.09 Decreasing $13.79 $35.64 $132.02 1946
ISM Manufacturing Index D+ Jun, 2009 44.8 Increasing 29.4 52.6 77.5 1948
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index D+ Jun, 2009 49.8 Increasing 33.3 56.2 67.7 1997
Historical Range
Affordability C Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
These statistics are probably the most important indicators of short-term housing market performance.
Conforming Mortgage Rates (contract rate; an additional 0.6 - 1.0 points are also paid up front by the borrower)
Housing Cycle Barometer A+ Jun, 2009 0.5 Increasing 0.0 4.9 10.0 1981
US Median Home Payment / Income Ratio Jun, 2009 28.1% Increasing 27.3% 38.4% 62.6% 1981
US Median Home Price / Income Ratio B Jun, 2009 3.4 Decreasing 3.1 3.7 5.0 1981
Mortgage Rates, Fixed A Jul, 2009 5.25% Declining 4.81% 9.05% 18.45% 1971
Mortgage Rates, Adjustable B Jul, 2009 4.80% Declining 3.41% 6.37% 12.20% 1984
Fixed/Adjustable Spread F Jul, 2009 0.45% Narrowing (0.0%) 1.81% 3.36%
Fixed/10-year Spread C Jul, 2009 1.58% Narrowing 0.53% 1.70% 4.86%
Fed Funds Rate Jul, 2009 0.15% Flat 0.10% 5.56% 19.10% 1954
Percentage of Adjust. Loans A- Jul, 2009 5.4% Rising 0.8% 17.0% 36.6% 1990
Equity/Owned Home (Current $) C 2009Q1 $98,815 Decreasing $68,902 $103,636 $179,824 1952
Debt % in Home (LTV) F 2009Q1 58.6% Increasing 19.3% 34.6% 58.6% 1952
Median Household Income 2007 $50,233 Increasing $7,143 $26,156 $50,233 1967
- Growth Rate, nominal C- 2007 4.2% Increasing 0.4% 5.0% 11.0% 1968
Historical Range
Consumer Behavior D- Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Consumer attitudes correlate well with short-term housing sales performance. Consumer income growth, debt
levels and job prospects affect the long-term outlook for housing sales.
Consumer Confidence Index F Jul, 2009 46.6 Falling 25.3 96.8 144.7 1967
Consumer Sentiment Index D Jul, 2009 66.0 Decreasing 51.7 86.8 112.0 1978
Consumer Comfort Index F Jun, 2009 -50 Decreasing -51 -9 38 1985
Annual Labor Force Growth C+ 0 1,603,000 Improving -805 1,549 3,792 17533
Labor Force Growth Rate C+ 38384 1.1% Improving -1.3% 1.6% 4.9% 17899
Revolving Cons. Credit per Household May, 2009 $7,803 Decreasing $406 $3,693 $8,269 1977
- Growth Rate A+ May, 2009 -4.6% Decreasing -4.6% 9.9% 28.2% 1978
Personal Savings Rate C May, 2009 6.9% Improving -2.7% 6.8% 14.6% 1959
U.S. Net Worth Growth Rate F 2009Q1 -16.2% Increasing -17.4% 7.3% 17.2% 1957
Financial Obligation Ratio D 2009Q1 18.5% Decreasing 15% 17% 19% 1980
Misery Index (Unemployment + Inflation) B- Jul, 2009 7.30 Declining 2.97 9.41 21.98 1948
Historical Range
Existing Home Market D Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
Sales volumes correlate well with the Housing Cycle calculations, and boost the trade up New Home sales market.
S&P/Case-Shiller� U.S. Price Index (YOY % Change) F 2009Q1 -19.1% Declining -19.1% 4.1% 15.7% 1988
NAR Single-Family Median Home Price Jun, 2009 $181,600 Increasing $19,700 $98,804 $230,900 1968
NAR Single-Family Annual Price Appreciation F Jun, 2009 -15.0% Accelerating -16.8% 5.7% 17.4% 1969
Freddie Mac Annual Price Appreciation F 2009Q1 -4.0% Accelerating -5.3% 5.8% 15.2% 1971
Annual Sales Volume, SA B- Jun, 2009 4,890,000 Increasing 1,370,000 3,757,088 7,210,000 1968
Existing Home Inventory for Sale, SA D- Jun, 2009 3,823,000 Decreasing 1,510,000 2,489,905 4,575,000 1982
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA D+ Jun, 2009 9.4 Decreasing 3.6 7.2 13.8 1982
Purchase Mort. App. Index, SA C Jul, 2009 264.4 Declining 53.5 272.7 529.3 1990
Pending Home Sales Index, SA D May, 2009 90.7 Increasing 80.4 105.2 128.2 2001
Homeownership Rate B 2009Q2 67.4% Rising 62.8% 65.3% 69.2% 1965
Historical Range
New Home Market D- Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
High appreciation and low inventory would mean an excellent short-term outlook for the new home industry.
Housing Market Index F Aug, 2009 18 Increasing 8 52 78 1985
Multifamily Condo Market Index F 2009Q1 14.5 Increasing 7.8 37.5 66.9 2002
Median Price, NSA Jun, 2009 $206,200 Decreasing $17,200 $102,398 $262,600 1963
Annual Appreciation Rate F Jun, 2009 -12.0% Decelerating -14.6% 5.8% 24.5% 1964
Constant Quality Price Index (YOY % Change) F 2009Q2 -6.2% Decelerating -7.8% 4.8% 16.8% 1963
Sales Volume, SA F Jun, 2009 384,000 Increasing 329,000 689,143 1,389,000 1963
New Home Inventory for Sale, NSA B- Jun, 2009 282,000 Decreasing 175,000 328,489 570,000 1963
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA D Jun, 2009 8.8 Decreasing 3.5 6.1 12.4 1963
Months of Homes Completed, SA D Jun, 2009 4.0 Decreasing 0.8 1.9 6.1 1973
Months of Homes Under Const., SA C Jun, 2009 3.5 Decreasing 2.0 3.4 5.9 1973
Months of Homes Not Started, SA D+ Jun, 2009 1.3 Decreasing 0.4 1.0 1.9 1973
Historical Range
Housing Supply F Period Statistic Direction** Minimum Average Maximum 1st Year
High construction levels are good for the economy. However, if new supply exceeds demand, prices could fall.
New Housing Units Completed, SA F Jun, 2009 818,000 Decreasing 778,000 1,523,430 2,299,000 1968
Single-Family Starts, SA F Jun, 2009 470,000 Increasing 357,000 1,085,315 1,823,000 1959
Multifamily Starts, SA F Jun, 2009 112,000 Decreasing 91,000 438,781 1,144,000 1959
Total Starts, SA F Jun, 2009 582,000 Increasing 479,000 1,524,096 2,494,000 1959
Single-Family Permits, SA F Jun, 2009 430,000 Increasing 342,000 934,449 1,798,000 1960
Multifamily Permits, SA F Jun, 2009 133,000 Increasing 112,000 490,984 1,385,000 1960
Total Permits, SA F Jun, 2009 563,000 Increasing 498,000 1,426,027 2,419,000 1960
Manuf. Housing Placements, SA F Apr, 2009 53,000 Decreasing 53,000 225,597 429,000 1980
Total Supply, SA F 616,000 Increasing 551,000 1,684,102 2,379,000 1980
Total Housing Stock 2009Q2 130,828,000 Increasing 63,668,000 98,263,331 130,840,000 1965
Homeowner Vacancy Rate F 2009Q2 2.5% Declining 0.9% 1.5% 2.9% 1965
Overall Grade D (Based on a straight average of the 7 Major Factors Above) |
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发表于 2009-8-30 08:38 AM
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发表于 2009-8-30 08:46 AM
