本帖最后由 刁得一 于 2009-8-29 23:56 编辑
所有的趋势都有个终点。这次的涨势，是否已临近结束了呢？书上读到一段教人识别顶部的文字，拿来给大家分享一下：
如何学着识别顶部
在市场上涨的过程中，密切观察四大指数（S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite）的日线图。在上升趋势中的某一天，市场的交易量比前一日显著升高，但是价格却停滞不前。这叫做“heavy volume without further price progress up.” 当天大盘不一定会下跌，但是在大多数情况下是以下跌做收的——这令我们更容易发现庄家在出货。这一天的range可能会比前几日的大。......... 如果这一日以下跌超过0.2%做收，则应被视作正儿八经的distribution day。（这不就是说的昨天周五（8月28日）吗？）
开始下跌以后，有3个迹象来确认顶部
从顶部下跌过以后，市场通常会有上涨。典型的这种上涨，会表现乏力，并以失败告终。比如，反弹一天以后，第二天开盘很强，然而临近收盘时突然反转下跌。对这种尝试恢复涨势，然后跟进突然失败的情况，你应该卖出。
通过下面3个迹象，你可以知道这个反弹是乏力的，如果(1) 反弹日后第三天，或者第四天，或者第五天又上涨，但是交易量低于反弹日,(2)反弹幅度与第一日相比微不足道，（3）恢复幅度不及跌幅的一半。当你看到这种软弱的上涨并最终失败时，进一步的售出股票是可取的。
摘自p210 《How to Make Money in Stocks -- a winning system in good times or bad》(updated fourth edition) by William J. O'Neil
How you can learn to Identify Stock Market Tops
To detect a market top, keep a close eye on the daily S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite as they work their way higher. On one of the days in the uptrend, volume for the market as a whole will increase from the day before, but the index itself will show stalling action (a significantly smaller price increase for the day compared with the prior day's price increase). I call this "heavy volume without further price progress up." The average doesn't have to close down for the day, but in most instances it will, making the distribution (professional investors liquidate stock) must easier to see. The day range (spread from the average's daily high to its daily low) may in some cases be a little wider than on previous days.
Normal liquidation near the market peak will usually occur on three to five specific days over a period of four or five weeks. In other words, the market comes under distribution wile it's advancing! This is one reason so few people know how to recognize distribution. After four or five days of definite distribution over any span of four or five weeks, the general market will almost always turn down.
Four days of distribution, if correctly spotted over a two- or three-week period, are sometimes enough to turn a previously advancing market into a decline. Sometimes distribution can be spread over six weeks if the market attempts at some point to rally back to new highs.
... If one index is down for the day on volume larger than the prior day's volume, it should decline more than 0.2% for this to be counted as a distribution day.
Three Signs the First Rally Attempt May Fail
After the market does top out, it typically will rally feebly and then fail. After the first day's rebound, for instance, the second day will open strongly but suddenly turn down near the end of the session. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its first recovery attempt should probably be met with further selling on your part.
You'll know that the initial bounce back is feeble if (1) the index advances in price on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day, but on volume that is lower than that of the day before, (2) the average makes little net upward price progress compared with its progress the day before, or(3)the market average recovers less than half of the initial drop from its former absolute intraday high. When you see these weak rallies and failures, further selling is advisable. |
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发表于 2009-8-29 01:41 PM
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