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Tough call，低开在周一的support上，因此有fill gap的可能，但是这gap偏大，因此也有不fill的可能。有一条可以肯定，如果开盘就强力拉起补空的话，今天会是个strong up day。如果不补空的话，老规矩，10：30以后有新低，那今天会是strong down day。
Chart A: Daily Volume trending on the SPY
Some of the Institutional investors were concerned about the dropping volume as the market rallied. This first chart below, show's the SPY and its volume with a 14 day simple moving average. During this bear market, there were 6 occasions where the volume's 14 SMA moved down and then broke a resistance line to the upside. On all 6 occasions, the SPY went lower afterwards.
Today: As you can see on the chart, the SPY started trending up in March, and its 14 day SMA shows that the volume subsequently trended down. There was no confirmation from the NYA Down Volume last Friday, but it was testing the resistance for the second time raising the downside risks to a higher level. On Monday, the SPY's volume was ABOVE its resistance line again ... that increased risk level was apparent with the NYA's Down Volume rising above its blue resistance line. This is a short term down condition from this model ... NOTE: The SPY's Volume is NOT shooting up last past instances and is meandering sideways. This is not the same profile of the past conditions yet.
Chart B: Liquidity Inflows and Outflows
Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action. If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up. Liquidity inflows had a slight up tick while in high territory.
Chart C: Institutional Accumulation/Distribution
Yesterday: The Institutional Investors remained in decreasing Accumulation with the Buy/Sell spread increasing slightly. Institutional buying increased slightly, and Institutional selling decreased slightly.
Additional Explanation today: I want to make a comment here, because there is an Institutional "trick" that they play. The trick is that when the market reaches a level that Institutions feel is high enough for them, they continually decrease their buying while at the same time, they pull back on selling. By letting the smaller players do the buying and not selling into them, they allow the market to move up and enhance their profits. Over time, a decrease in buying and a change to an increase in selling brings the two to a point where they are converging on each other and the Institutions get ready to go into distribution. At that point the market has a correction.
*** Conclusion: No change ... Overall, conditions are showing increased stress, so risks levels are also increasing.
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发表于 2009-8-19 07:47 AM
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发表于 2009-8-19 07:47 AM
