32.2% US mortgages are underwater

herb

Several days ago, when I saw Deutsche Bank predicted half of all mortgages expected to be underwater by 2011, I thought I might be just another bs prediction.  Now I see this First American CoreLogic report shows that 32.2% US mortgages are already underwater.  Considering a 5% commision, about 40% are underwater.

How will the banks survive the next couple of years?

http://www.loanperformance.com/i ... ty_final_081309.pdf
Mortgage Facts and Figures - Select States:
California has $2.4 trillion in mortgages debt. 42.0% of the properties have negative equity.
Florida has $923 billion in mortgage debt. 49.4% of the properties have negative equity.
Illinois has $447 billion in mortgage debt. 29.4% of the properties have negative equity.
Arizona has $298 billion in mortgage debt. 51.0% of the properties have negative equity.
Nevada has $149 billion in mortgage debt. 65.6% of the properties have negative equity.
Nationwide there is $10.1 trillion in mortgage debt. 32.2% of the properties have negative equity.37.6% of the properties have "near-negative" equity.

dara

42%? I do not believe. I checked my neighbor(from zillow.com and their last trading year), I think it is around 10%.

Average I definitely do not believe the 42% number.

NO WAY, does not worth argue.

jsl

maybe you used different rules for the calculation. I have no idea myself.

dara

maybe you used different rules for the calculation. I have no idea myself.
jsl 发表于 2009-8-17 16:41

It is very simple, I do not think  house price drops back to 2001-2002 yet(in BayArea and LosAngeles Area).

Then for different districts, it may vary. some may drop to 03-04 level, some to 2005-2006.

It is impossible 42% of houses are traded during 2003-2008, no brain.

haobuhao

不考虑通货膨胀, 只比单纯的价, 现在全美平均是2003年年初水平.
算进通货膨胀,  2000年底的水平.

It is very simple, I do not think  house price drops back to 2001-2002 yet(in BayArea and LosAngeles Area).

Then for different districts, it may vary. some may drop to 03-04 level, some to 20 ...
dara 发表于 2009-8-17 16:45

herb

maybe you used different rules for the calculation. I have no idea myself.
jsl 发表于 2009-8-17 16:41

American moves every 6 years, so most mortgages are pretty fresh.  Now the loan criteria is more strict, but there are still lots of people only pay 3~5% down payments.  I just checked over 100 mortgages in my area for the past several months.  There are over 20% such near zero down loans.  I even saw two zero down loans.  I can’t believe how they got such zero down mortgage at this time.

jsl

6# herb


don't know, maybe it was the bank's house, so it would be equivalent to rent to the home buyer.