08/12/2009 白天灌水

Cobra

平盘开盘估计，大约会flat到2:15pm，然后过山车，最后结果未知。

 

上点信息，Institution is in accumulation，Liquidity is very high，所以还是看不出来有啥大跌的可能，尽管看星星的不少开始叫了，下周有可能CRASH！Well，we'll see。

 

Chart B: Liquidity Inflows and Outflows

 

Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action. If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up. Yesterday, Liquidity inflows had a down tick, but were still reasonably high and at no panic level

 

Chart C: Institutional Accumulation/Distribution

 

Meanwhile, Institutional Investors remained in Accumulation with the Buy/Sell spread decreasing. Institutional buying decreased, and Institutional selling increased. Overall, conditions are showing increased stress that should remain in effect during the next few days. This means short term long trades will be very difficult to trade on the long side.

happylux

Is result of Fed meeting come out at 2pm?

gardener2000

sofa

mikeqc

take a seat

Cobra

阴谋论：

THOSE 3AM VIGILANTES ARE AT IT AGAIN as
the beginning of European trading saw sharp weakness after
Asian stock markets closed lower led by
China’s -4.7% decline. The US dollar was really
rather strong at that point, and the currencies
were weak across the board save for the
Japanese Yen; commodity prices were weak
and falling – and it looked as if yesterday’s NY
weakness would leak into today. However, that
wasn’t to be the case, for the exact lows in all
the European markets came at the 3am to 4am
hour – with the bourses rallying on average
+1.5% off their lows. The S&P futures too have
rallied over +1% off their lows, and the US
dollar is back to “flat.” We are constantly “irked”
as to why this actually happens, for it happens
too often for our liking and smacks of
“intervention” by the long-hand of something
somewhere.

happylux

老大早！

Cobra

TWO VERY IMPORTANT POINTS RELATED TO
OUR TRADING STRATEGY: Over the past several trading
sessions, we’ve pointed out two very important
circumstances that have a bearing upon our trading
strategy. First, the US dollar reversed higher last Friday
after the US employment situation report, and did so in
impressive fashion with supporting volume; and it appears
to have put in a very tradable bottom of proportions we do
not know yet. It could very well be a major bottom, although
no one would believe this at this very juncture as sentiment
towards the USD has become overly bearish at only 3% of
market participants. From a contrarian point-of-view, to
correct this, a massive rally will be needed to bring this
back to a more neutral level. And let us further make the
point that all the major USD bottoms have been associated
with such low sentiment figures. Also, USD bottoms have
foreshadowed larger corrections in US stocks. Be prepared.
Secondly, interest rates have risen recently once again
across the yield curve and in particular the long-end of the
yield curve whereby many consumer interest rates are
calculated. Those gains have eased in recent days, but
with the FOMC meeting ending today – we’re likely to see
volatility expand if they do not address extending the
Treasury securities asset purchase plan – perhaps pushing
yields higher as a result. The technicals bear this out, as
on page 4 we illustrate the 10-year note yield has broken
out of a bullish pennant, but has found resistance at its
major 600-day moving average. This has been the fulcrum
point for major reversals in the interest rate market in the
past, and any sustained trade over this level may very well
lead to far higher rates than anyone anticipates at this
juncture. Conversely, this fulcrum point may very well push
rates lower, but the fact of the matter is that the model
support higher…not lower yields.

tianshi1013

早

yoy_158

老大早啊。

dlaodou

讲点中文贝
谢谢

seabiscuit

Good morning

palm

morning.

javamood

thanks!

dara

morning

jzj

sds

狗打猫拧。

lilylily

good morning

ice_tea

早

target1

Thank you, Cobra!

benshou

zao