07/23/2009 大盘回顾 （Bond Stock Ratio Buy Signal）

Cobra

Summary:

A Head and Shoulders Bottom could be formed.

Bond Stock Ratio gives a long-term buy signal.

Intermediate-term still has some bearish puzzles.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Up	Overbought
Short-term	Up	Overbought

 

今天大盘算是convincingly breakout了，就是说不用放大镜也能看出new high来了。造成的效果：

 

1. 1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，a possible Head and Shoulders Bottom。当然，right shoulder小了点，不过要是很标准的right shoulder，保证有人会说too obvious to play out。

 

2. 7.3.0 SPX Long-term Trading Signals，中间的Bond Stock Ratio触发了buy signal，而最上面俺正式的long-term signal似乎也离触发buy不远了。

 

结论就是看着long-term很bullish。那么是不是这样呢？俺还不sure，等几天吧，因为0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，还有几个puzzle：上面的NYADV and NYUPV negative divergence，下面的VIX:VXV sell signal以及各中期信号的negative divergence。至于大家都关注的Broading Top，数据俺放在图上了，可能并不说明是top。

 

Short-term，俺还是看pullback，理由除了After Bell Quick Summary里的Cumulative TICK外，还有Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart，almost historical new high了。

 

此外，3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，米金整了个黑棒棒，有反弹的可能，这个也说明大盘可能会pullback。

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，这看一下，有点过了。

bolero

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sdai1

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lightfly

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bolero

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litfat

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1# Cobra

Bigmouth

1st page!

Bigmouth

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9ZQS

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lehldk

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wolfdoctor

先顶再看

skipjack

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javamood

floor!

yuliang

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Cobra 老大，如果long term的buy被确认了，是不是就认为这次危机就结束了呢？
还有这次熊市是不是结束地太快了呢？

surya

Thanks!

humbletrader

1st page!

yam

first page!

就一个单底，不回头了？这可能吗？