Looking into Intel Q2

z_crochio

大家都来分析一下Intel Q2吧。
我先来一点，抛转引玉。(totally unprofessional)
对Intel的财务状况和profitability毫无疑问，只希望从sales, inventory, expense，看出semi和Tech的下一步/Q3Q4。

- revenue by geography:
- N.A/E.U/Jan: -22.5%
- Asian ex Jan: -8%
> Not much better than est (overall -23.5%) if looking at developed countries, and E.U is a much bigger blow than N.A.

- revenue by segment:
- Digital Enterprise Group -19.8%
- Mobility Group -8%
> Mobile/Telecom segment strong, and assume the same for service companies in this segment.

- Inventory down by 240miln (qrtly), mainly in WIP
- Raw, Finished goods level is almost same.
> WIP drops 14% from Q1, but Inventory(finished) is same. An effort to keep inventory level low, and shows demand dims.

> Q2 WIP:Finished is returning back to 1:1 as Q4 last year.  
I don't think it is a sign of growing demand or even bottoming. It took them 2 quarters to rebalance at low inventory level, so they expect down-stream re-stocking done after Q2? Management seems very cautious of low demand, and may kick start of another round of inventory contraction if needed.

> WIP slightly less than Finished goods in Q2, different from previous 2 quarters. Somewhat signals further cutting and demand outlook may not be good. If Q3 and Q4 are big quarters for Intel (like last year), maintaining low inventory into Q3, seems like an issue to me. Esp WIP.

欢迎更正，补漏。

soulvirus

小亥

小亥

转贴一个
"英特尔预计2009财年第三季度营收为85亿美元，上下浮动4亿美元；毛利率为53%，上下浮动两个百分点；运营支出(研发、总务和行政)约为28亿美元；重组和资产减损支出约为4000万美元；收购交易相关的有形资产和成本摊销约为4000万美元；股票投资、利息和其它收入约净亏损8000万美元；折旧支出约为12亿美元。英特尔预计2009财年全年运营支出(研发、总务和行政)约为106亿美元到108亿美元(不计入与第二季度欧盟罚款相关的 14.5亿美元支出)，高于此前预期的104亿美元到106亿美元；资本支出为47亿美元，上下浮动2亿美元，少于2008财年的52亿美元；折旧支出为 48亿美元，上下浮动1亿美元，与此前预期维持不变；第三季度和第四季度的有效税率约为23%，低于此前预期的24%"

svntn

1# z_crochio
I think you also need to look at inventory cycle time to understand the importance of the WIP reduction. It could be trivia at one point of time.

mary666

ding

z_crochio

5# svntn

Thanks for pointing out, my understanding is this:
Chips are made quick by machines, so turn around time should historically quite low.
Chips evolves fast, they only make what's needed now (maybe like WIP:Finished=1:1).
So it means their inventory should be tracking demand quite well, all the time.
For time like this, everyone is cutting cost to the bone, that means their inventory level, must be much closer to the demand expectation, if not close enough before.

And Intel serves the biggest share of world's demand, that's quite meaningful. Unforturenately, I only can see quarterly data, but it's real number instead of talks.

Please share if anyone has more.

z_crochio

I mean turnover time....and it's high, not low
but you know what i am trying to say

svntn

8# z_crochio


if inventory cycle time is high (manufacuring time is fast/limited), your analysis only implied the immediate demand pipeline could be low, which may only represent one week's demand, or even a few days.

ROOKIE2

WHO KNOWS

z_crochio

fast compared to suppliers like machinery(?). but not that fast (a few days).
use Q2 number, 8.0/1.2, gives 6.6 cycles in a quarter,
WIP+finished give 2 cycles, and raw somewhat tells the third.
roughly 1 third of a quarter, a month?

harley