EEtimes: TSMC running 100% for 65nm

hohoho

IC recovery: 10 reasons to be optimistic, pessimistic

Mark LaPedus
(07/06/2009 1:40 PM EDT)
URL: http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=218400517

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Thankfully, the first half of 2009 is over, as the IC market was terrible.

What about the second half of 2009? There is considerable debate about the second half. Some are bulls. Some are bears. Some are in both camps.

Here's 10 reasons to be hopeful--or pessimistic--about the IC outlook, based on various and random data points from analysts and others:

Optimists:

Daniel Amir, analyst, Lazard Capital Markets

''In recent days we have learned that TSMC is running a 100 percent utilization rate at 65-nm and cannot meet demand. Two of TSMC's major customers at 65-nm -- Nvidia and Broadcom -- have raised orders for 3Q. We see this as a sign that chip suppliers are attempting to secure supply for potential upside in the 2H.''

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John Barton, analyst, Cowen and Co.

''Recent channel checks show significantly improved backlog coverage for the September quarter and consistent shipment patterns over the last three to four weeks. Our channel checks imply that September quarter backlogs will be up an average of 10 percent compared to the backlogs entering the June quarter.''

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Craig Berger, analyst, FBR

''Samsung Electronics positively pre-announces 2Q results. The company didn't provide a reason for the better than previously expected performance, though it is largely thought to be due to stabilizing prices for DRAM and NAND flash memory chips, better liquid crystal display volumes and pricing, and likely some better than expected shipments of cellular handsets.''

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Susie Inouye, analyst, Databeans Inc.

''The current market for optoelectronics worldwide is valued at $16.7 billion. This is a decrease of 6 percent for worldwide revenue from 2008. Unit shipments are expected to increase this year as demand for LEDs and OLEDs drives a shift in share from higher priced image sensors to these energy efficient lamps that are now backlighting televisions, mobile phones, and other displays.''

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Philip Koh, analyst, Gartner

''Asia/Pacific's semiconductor market is forecast to reach $114.2 billion in 2009, a 20.8 percent decline from 2008 revenue. The impact of the global downturn will result in the region's semiconductor industry experiencing high double-digit revenue declines in 2009. However, our 2Q09 forecast shows a slight improvement over the 1Q09 forecast due to an improved global PC and microprocessor outlook.''

Craig Berger, analyst, FBR

''We have only thus far seen demand recover from the consumer side with better volumes for notebook PCs, netbooks, handsets, smartphones, and LCD TVs, as well as a bit of strength from the networking side with China's 3G ramp. We still have not seen any demand recovery for enterprise (pent up demand could be building with some growth in 2010), automotive (production in bottoming process), and industrial supply chains (likely delayed recovery), which are all future areas for 'green shoots' recovery.''

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Bruce Diesen, analyst, Carnegie ASA

''We still expect a 15 percent drop in world semiconductor dollar sales this year.''

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Doug Freedman, analyst, Broadpoint AmTech

Regarding Intel Corp., ''we are raising our above-Street Q2 sales estimates as shipments recovered faster toward end-demand levels and mix shows signs of improvement, although below-seasonal Q3 growth seems likely ahead of the Win7 release. CULV (consumer ultra-low voltage processor line) is not receiving consistent support from or traction at OEMs, which could be a headwind to 2H09 gross margins.''

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Peter Goodman, reporter, New York Times

''The pace of job losses quickened last month with the American economy shedding 467,000 jobs, as unemployment rose to its highest level in 26 years.''

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Masatsune Yamaji, analyst, Gartner

''The market for automotive GPS navigation systems has been growing well, driven by rapid penetration of portable navigation devices (PNDs). However, the sound market conditions changed suddenly after the economic crisis hit. Gartner estimates that the worldwide market for automotive GPS products grew 31.8 percent in 2008, when 55.8 million units were manufactured.

We forecast that the number of units manufactured will decrease to 44.6 million in 2009 and then increase to 92.9 million in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7 percent.''

9527

没看懂

hohoho

个人觉得这篇文章最主要的是第一个分析师说的, 即TSMC 最近65纳米开工率达100%。 半导体业将是最早开始恢复的sector 之一. NVDA 和 BRCM 增加Q3 订单， 是不是要牛转乾坤了？

hohoho

65 纳米是当前主流半导体技术。TSMC 是最大晶圆代工厂。

ripplelet

thx

yuelm2008

1# hohoho
up

旅新

Running 100% utilization on 65nm is good, but that does not necessarily mean good for TSMC's overall business, nor does it for the semiconductor in general. In short, even TSMC is good, it doesn't mean NASDAQ is good.