美国，德国，日本家庭的财务状态比较

dividend_growth

Comparison of US, German, and Japanese Households' Financial Conditions

 

 

Sources:

US Federal Reserve Flow of Funds:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/, table L.100

 

Deutsche Bundesbank Financial Accounts:

http://www.bundesbank.de/statistik/statistik_wirtschaftsdaten_tabellen.en.php

 

Bank of Japan Flow of Funds:

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/boj_stat/sj/sj0903.zip, tab 18

 

 

Raw data in billion

	US (in USD)	Germany (in EUD)	Japan (in Yen)
Total Financial Assets	40,296	4,413	1,410,443
Savings	7,881	1,743	786,499
Bonds	4,264	304	90,169
Corporate Equities	5,178	166	79,658
Mutual Fund(1)	3,305	497	N/A
Insurance & Pension Reserves	11,073	1,524	397,336
Others(2)	7,939	178	56,781
Total Financial Liabilities	14,140	1,532	380,326
Debt	13,749	1,523	315,536
Residential Mortgage	10,465	1,040	188,413
Consumer Credits	2,521	202	35,566
Others	392	9	64,790
Total Financial Net Worth	26,156	2,881	1,030,118

 

Notes:

1. In the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds table L.122, Mutual Funds have 52.63% of their assets invested in corporate equities. Bundebank does not give a detailed breakdown, so we are going to assume a similar ratio as US mutual fund.

 

2. The Federal Reserve includes $7,156 billion Equity in noncorporate business as part of US household's financial assets. Germany and Japan central banks don't do that. So we need to remove that amount to have valid comparisons, then the adjusted Total Financial Asset for US household becomes $33,140 billion and Net Worth becomes $19,000 billion.

 

 

Analysis (converted to USD)

	US	Germany (in EUD)	Japan (in Yen)
Adj Total Financial Assets in billion	33,140	6,178	14,629
Adj Financial Net Worth	19,000	4,033	10,684
Savings as % of adj. Total Financial Assets	23.78%	39.50%	55.76%
Corporate Equities as % of adj. Total Financial Assets	20.87%	9.69%	5.65%
Debt as % of adj. Total Financial Assets	41.49%	34.51%	22.37%
Adj. Net Worth as % adj. Total Financial Assets	57.33%	65.28%	73.04%
Population (most recent survey)	306,704,000	82,220,000	127,078,679
Annualized GDP in 2009Q1 (billion)	14,090	3,445	5,962
Adj Net Worth per capita	61,949	49,051	84,074
Adj Net Worth as % of GDP	134.85%	117.07%	179.20%
Debt per capita	44,828	25,933	25,754
Debt as % of GDP	97.58%	61.89%	54.89%

 

 

Observations:

1. Japanese and Germans are indeed wonderful savers, putting more than 40-56% of their total financial assets in low yielding bank savings.

 

2. Americans are far more willing to take risks, their allocations to corporate equities never dipped below 15%, even during the days when equity investments were utterly derided as pure gambling (1948, 1975, 1982). Therefore, they suffer the most from stock market declines, but also enjoy the most from market advances. This has huge implications on consumer sentiments.

 

3. Japanese have the most financial assets per capita, but their future demographics is also the bleakest (population decline, aging of the society). Germany's demographics is not much better off than Japan, but has 41.65% less financial assets per capita.

 

4. Americans are highly leveraged, with Japanese only half as much. Americans' high leverage is certainly a consequence of the recent housing bubble. I have yet to find data on German and Japanese home equity situation. The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds (table B.100) shows US households have $7,405 billion owner's equity in their homes.

 

 

Investment Implications

1. Japan has the greatest potential for a major bull market in equities, but its market needs catalysts, such as major technology innovations, improved profitability (higher Return on Equity), and ease restrictions on M&A activities.

 

2. Germany also has good potentials, but Germans have been burnt badly in the late 90s bubble and may not come back to stocks in a while.

 

3. US is definitely stuck in a multi-decade bear market. As long as its people do not work off their debt significantly, any rallies would prove to be short lived. In real terms, the high in March 2000 will stand for a very long time. At the start of the great bull market of all time in 1949, Americans' debt made up only 5% of their total financial assets.

 

seabiscuit

Just read it twice.  Very insightful observations.  赞～～～

A very simple question.  What does "M&A" mean?

dd_xu

excellent article, thanks

maserati

Ding! Just like your other posts, this is another solid analysis.

xiaobailong

给大家看一个Total Assets，数据很老了，是２００６年的。但是现在仍然有一定的参考价值。主要是我找不到更新的了，大家凑合着看吧，呵呵。

结论是，如果德国人能够把那些non-financial assets，拿到financial市场来，那么stock市场前景还是不错的。不过，这种可能性不大，德国人的性格使然。

dara

给大家看一个Total Assets，数据很老了，是２００６年的。但是现在仍然有一定的参考价值。主要是我找不到更新的了，大家凑合着看吧，呵呵。

结论是，如果德国人能够把那些non-financial assets，拿到financial市场 ...
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-7-6 10:26

Yes. Wall steet MMs use the media to make American believe that everyone trading stock could have the potential(very high chance) to become another Buffet.

春江花月夜

keesa

美国银行利息偏低会不会也是美国人不存钱的一个原因
就跟当初我对香港的银行定期存款都只搞六个月的很不理解
它们这个金融系统就是鼓励投资，多一个活路总是好的
我也见过一堆退休账户赚的不亦乐乎的babyboomer
不能说一出了金融危机就骂

Yes. Wall steet MMs use the media to make American believe that everyone trading stock could have the potential(very high chance) to become another Buffet.
dara 发表于 2009-7-6 10:49

BlueRiver

老大， 有没有中国的数字 ？ 日本德国个头还是太小了

colderdown

Thank you very much. We are still in leverage process. Until this process finished or another bubble formed, those risk assets are turely RISK assets.

面包车

very good analysis.

Aeiou

thanks

bucks

a great analysis

风清扬

leftbank