my perception about the correlation between a bull market and a bear market.

仁者深潜

my perception about the correlation between a  bull market and a bear market.
1.Since the US government can't afford to have MR.MARKET get  another around of free nose dive,
the government will take whatever it takes to keep the equation well balanced and get any
factors out of the equation, which  may potentially break the balance. Simply, either ways go "extreme" could get the marekt spiral out of control. With that said,  if the commodity market moves downtrend at a break point, the stock market has to move up in order to maintain this Market SHIP seaworthy.

2. specifically, the government will sell debt today. I believe that if the government is a wise guy, then they rather maintain a relatively bull market than a bear  since a bull market will enhence the buyers' confidence to buy. Otherwise, if more buyers will perceive the market as a continuous bear, then they will suspect that the Fed will print more money to bail out the market, with that mentality, it will run into a vicious circle that is not what the government expected.  

3.all in all, I don't see a big bull neither a huge bear down the road until the market will recover from the bottom. The only gigantic bear steps into the market when the oil is no longer denominated by the dollar or Mr.O8 is assassinated. anyway, all I said could turn out  BS. hehe :)

xiaobailong

仁者深潜

when i wondered whereabouts of  my post and found that my post was posted on the xiaoheiban shang la!

marole

I 80% agree with what you stated. Our gurus and experienced soldiers have summarized many positive factors and negative factors so far. I don't want to repeat that.
I sense that a new low will be seen by Mid -2010 but the only question is when the stock market starts to dive.
It may hold and pig for another quarter because we have seen the power of feds and the administration. Bears don't want attack with full speed and full power in case of a surprise move by the Feds or other agencies. The bulls are still strong and more fresh blood is waiting to be poured in. So until the time optimism is worn out and the Feds bury themselves, the bear should not attack.