06/19/2009 大盘回顾 （Head and Shoulders Bottom or Bear Flag?）

Cobra

Summary:

Bull or bear, we might know on Monday.

Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index is way overbought.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral

 

没有结论，看周一吧，不太看好Tech Sector though。关于short-term，周五的After Bell Quick Summary，总结了2点，一是，周一统计上讲会比较“Bear Friendly”；二是，根据N vs N rule，周一牛牛必须high过SPX 946。

 

从SPX 30 min chart看，牛熊各有凭据，向上，是Head and Shoulders Bottom，有去测试June high 956的可能，向下，则是Bear Flag，根据measured move，大约会有53点的跌幅。到底向上，还是向下，I have no idea，操作上可能是等突破后再动作比较好。

 

1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min)，可能是个Bearish Rising Wedge。Well，yes，I know，没有很明显的negative divergence，所以这个Bearish Rising Wedge，也许可能大概不是那么bearish，不过，下面的Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index是record high，因此俺认为QQQQ pullback的可能还是很大的。

 

其他没啥说的，有空看看0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights，short-term neutral，intermediate-term全是sell signal了。

 

 

几个有待观察的图：

 

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min)，Bullish Falling Wedge plus positive divergence，米金可能会涨，这对大盘不利。

 

5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily)，oversold plus multiple supports，XLE可能会反弹。5.2.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE 30 min)，30 min chart有很多positive divergences，也支持反弹的说法。

 

cartier

ppteam

shafa

JL01

lite1067

DING!
蛇老大辛苦了！！

buctusa

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PacificLegend

辛苦了，支持向下说

maimait

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JUDD

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犮不戒

一楼

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gear

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pxlh

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peaceful99

Thank you so much!

lake3peat

Many thanks!!!