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[转贴] Speculators Betting On A Spike In The VIX

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发表于 2009-6-13 09:33 AM |显示全部楼层


http://sentimentrader.blogspot.com/

Speculators Betting On A Spike In The VIX

Posted: 12 Jun 2009 01:05 PM PDT

This is more of "what the..." chart more than anything tradable, but it's interesting that as of the latest release covering positions through the June 9th close, the CFTC shows that large speculators are net long VIX futures to a degree not matched in the past few years.

20090612_vix.png


Normally, large speculators are more of a contrary indicator than anything when their positions reach an extreme, but that hasn't worked in the VIX.  This is a relatively new futures contract, and it can act pretty screwy when compared to the cash VIX index, but the last couple of times we saw large specs build big positions (relatively speaking) in the futures, we saw implied volatility jump over the next couple of months.

There was a temporary spike in their positions in early March of this year which was quickly reversed before volatility began to fall, but that's still kinda sorta a false signal.  Anyway, like I said, I wouldn't trade on this by any means, but it does make me raise one eyebrow just a bit.

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发表于 2009-6-13 09:36 AM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-13 09:55 AM |显示全部楼层
会不会与下个星期的三重魔力日有关系?

通常三重魔力日之前的一个星期震荡非常利害,可这次却异常平静。

下个星期有可能总爆发。我观察到很多个人投资者也买了VIX CALL。
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:00 AM |显示全部楼层
this past week, mkt makers did successfully killed many calls and puts by shaking intra-day and close around 940, Drain most leaders 3-40% option value in time decay, no one wins. the question is what do they want next week?
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:19 AM |显示全部楼层
I posted this chart last week, now look at those patterns, support and resistance

0612-1.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:26 AM |显示全部楼层
VIX chart, see the channel and wedge

0612-2.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:30 AM |显示全部楼层
OIL chart

0612-3.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:40 AM |显示全部楼层
index weekly

0612-4.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:42 AM |显示全部楼层
Q 姐在图中说VIX有可能BOUNCE BACKto35 是不是说下几个星期有可能大跌?
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:47 AM |显示全部楼层
index daily chart, unless the volume comes back above, do not expect it go too far. I do expect something happen from end of june and around 4th of July (980-1007 as maximum), after that no way it can continue going higher with low volume.

0612-5.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:50 AM |显示全部楼层
9# clqdma

may not happen before 4th of July, but will happen after that. the 59 day magic number after 5/7/2009.

by the way, cycle timing question, please ask NL or Creekmm, they are better than me.
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发表于 2009-6-13 11:57 AM |显示全部楼层
all index 60min, see the flat BB and the move within upper BB and lower BB

0612-6.png
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发表于 2009-6-13 01:31 PM |显示全部楼层
thanks
听潮起潮落,
看云起云飞。
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发表于 2009-6-13 01:38 PM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 小咪 于 2009-6-13 13:39 编辑 1# QQQ 谢Q姐
采菊东篱下,悠然见南山
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发表于 2009-6-13 01:47 PM |显示全部楼层
Thanks very much! Ding!
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发表于 2009-6-13 02:08 PM |显示全部楼层
:dabin
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发表于 2009-6-13 04:14 PM |显示全部楼层
thanks a lot. very nice charts.

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发表于 2009-6-13 04:30 PM |显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2009-6-13 05:00 PM |显示全部楼层
great post
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发表于 2009-6-13 05:17 PM |显示全部楼层
Thanks!
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