新年立帜2023

deep

今年老包的会也开完了，准备进入休假模式，就提前立个新年帜。

大道至简，话不多说，直接上图。


图中数值及相关都是估算的，仅作为示意用，En代表SP500 Earning

熊熊的如意算盘，利率越高，估值和盈利越低，除非老包搞错了。

街上的传说是前两个季度经济和盈利不好，后两个季度不错。到底怎样，冬后见分晓再说。

具体到操作，偷个懒，就照抄今年的作业吧。

祝各位新年愉快，大发！

胡同0110

E5 是啥，2024？

deep

胡同0110 发表于 2022-12-14 08:01 PM
E5 是啥，2024？

E1-E5对应不同的earning情况，目前市场预期在230这个位置

胡同0110

deep 发表于 2022-12-14 07:41 PM
E1-E5对应不同的earning情况，目前市场预期在230这个位置

也就是华尔街根本没有计价衰退。三季度美国信用卡债务已经和历史记录持平，四季度肯定创新高。

deep

胡同0110 发表于 2022-12-14 09:01 PM
也就是华尔街根本没有计价衰退。三季度美国信用卡债务已经和历史记录持平，四季度肯定创新高。

什么衰退，看看后面一栏，眼下花街大佬对明年下半年是信心十足。



前几天有两家大行说，明年上半年会有新低，应该是已经在调整模型了，只不过不会一次调完，需要一个过程。再过一个季度，如果各家都跟进，那就好玩了。

胡同0110

deep 发表于 2022-12-14 10:23 PM
什么衰退，看看后面一栏，眼下花街大佬对明年下半年是信心十足。

借你的贴子送胡同一句话作为我的2023年的进言，一个投资标的的涨跌，30%是自己，30%是行业，40%是市场。

笨小孩

现在的股价是预期了降息，美元在跌，债利率在跌

deep

基本上，今天这篇文章更详细解释了我的看法

dsp

deep 发表于 2022-12-16 02:53 PM
基本上，今天这篇文章更详细解释了我的看法

好害怕

Cheese

fortune1212

deep 发表于 2022-12-16 02:53 PM
基本上，今天这篇文章更详细解释了我的看法

反正都是跌。躺平ING.

peppapig

3200-3300, FED has one more hike in 2023 then hold at that.

Soft recession is most likely

Hard recession means that Fed will cut aggressively so might end up the same

deep

数字上明年大部分都是明牌，唯一不确定的其实是估值，这个掌握在花街手上。

熊熊现在要期待的朋友是黑天鹅，来之熊幸，不来熊命。

Cheese

deep 发表于 2022-12-19 10:54 AM
数字上明年大部分都是明牌，唯一不确定的其实是估值，这个掌握在花街手上。

熊熊现在要期待的朋友是黑天 ...

deep

明天算是正式拉开本季报的序幕，估值大战一触即发。牛牛需要的是信心，熊熊需要的是耐心

deep

As of today, the index is expected to report three straight quarters (Q4 2022 through Q2 2023) of year-over-year earnings declines. If this happens, it will mark the fourth time it has occurred since 2015. The last time the index reported at least three straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines was Q1 2020 through Q3 2020.

However, it should be noted that analysts believe earnings growth will return in Q3 2023 (5.2%) and Q4 2023 (10.7%). As a result, they expect the index to report earnings growth of 4.6% for all of 2023. Obviously, all of this earnings growth is projected for the 2nd half of 2023.

deep

S&P 500 EARNINGS SEASON UPDATE: JANUARY 27, 2023

The Q4 earnings season for the S&P 500 continues to be subpar. While the number of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises increased over the past week, the magnitude of these earnings surprises decreased during this time. Both metrics are still below their 5-year and 10-year averages. As a result, the earnings decline for the fourth quarter is larger today compared to the end of last week and compared to the end of the quarter. If the index reports an actual decline in earnings for Q4 2022, it will mark the first year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2020.

阿方

deep 发表于 2023-1-29 06:44 PM
S&P 500 EARNINGS SEASON UPDATE: JANUARY 27, 2023

The Q4 earnings season for the S&P 500 continues ...

还是通胀和加息搞得。 接着股市下降，消费意愿下降，企业盈利就上不去。

只有降息或者油价下来才能扭转颓势。

deep

S&P 500 EARNINGS SEASON UPDATE: FEBRUARY 3, 2023

At the midpoint of the Q4 earnings season, the performance of S&P 500 companies continues to be subpar. While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises remained flat over the past week, the magnitude of these earnings surprises decreased during this time, mainly due to negative EPS surprises reported by a number of large technology companies. Both metrics are below their 5-year and 10-year averages. As a result, the earnings decline for the fourth quarter is larger today compared to the end of last week and compared to the end of the quarter. If the index reports an actual decline in earnings for Q4 2022, it will mark the first year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2020.

Overall, 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2022 to date. Of these companies, 70% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the percentage of 70% at the end of last week, but below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 0.6% above estimates, which is below the percentage of 1.5% at the end of last week, below the 5-year average of 8.6%, and below the 10-year average of 6.4%. If 0.6% is the actual surprise percentage for the quarter, it will mark the lowest surprise percentage reported by the index since 2008.

从已公布的季报看，盈利下行还是比较明显的，重点在于是相信这只是下降的刚开始，还是已经快结束了。也许还要2天，还是2周，还是两个季度才能看得清？

季报进入下半场，下周主要聚集在非科技类的传统行业，某种程度应该更能反应全面的经济情况。

deep

deep 发表于 2022-12-14 11:23 PM
什么衰退，看看后面一栏，眼下花街大佬对明年下半年是信心十足。

随着季报的展开，估值这根弦越绷越紧

During the month of January, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the first quarter by a larger margin than average. The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q1 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 3.3% (to $52.41 from $54.20) from December 31 to January 31.

The decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first month of the first quarter was larger than the 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year averages.