No one can deny that, the current market is HOT. On one hand, it's so HOT that you are afraid of missing the potential of making money on the long side while the market edging higher. On the other hand, you are also afraid that, you will get burned if you chase the market at this point, since it really looks way too HOT. Worst yet, for those who try to make money from shorting the market, their asses are getting red HOT right now.
On top of that, we are living in an information era with all kind of data feeding into your already confused brain. You are overwhelmed with all the bullish and bearish analysis, so rich, yet so contradicting. You are getting anxious. Unfortunately, such kind of anxiety will not only ruin your day, but also affect your judgment.
对很多人来说， 这时候的股市， 就象是鸡肋，食之难受。但因人greedy的天性，又弃之不舍。
Depending on the different mindset, bulls and bears will read into the same piece of information from very different angles. For instance, when data showing that, some mutual funds are buying C and BAC in large amount right now, the bulls are cheering because it is a bullish sign to the stocks. However, the bears would argue that, a lot of the mutual funds were buying C and BAC aggressively at 40s, 30s and 20s. Back then, it was very bullish sign too.
Similarly to housing, experts have been calling housing bottom since 2006. Now, when the housing start showed the worst record, it's interpreted as good news because, it can't get much worse than that. True, as new housing start hits bottom, it would leave more room for the current market to work its way out. 但，是否表示房事要反弹。这就要看就业了。 所以，房市如何， 是一个未知数。
类似的牛熊反推，还有很多。 很多人都认为，胡同是个大熊窝。 从观点上来讲，好像是的。但，这不等于，胡同里的人，操作上以熊为主。这个问题不搞清，你就大大的不妙。
这是一个新牛市吗？ 我话放在这，I am not convinced。 所以，我还是以玩熊市反弹的心态。
毋论牛熊，其实， 要在这股市生存， 心态，资金管理，再加一套符合你自己的打法，才是关键。 这也是要很花功夫的。
很多人在这点位，看到有些大牛们，不管股市升，还是掉，每天都说发大了。 没有定力的，就惨了， 恨不得立马认了大牛做干爹（娘）。 看着钱就觉得臭，非要换成股票才高兴。
隔天，market一掉，吓得cut loss了。看看大牛们还在大喊发大了（长也发，掉也发，所以是大牛）; 再回头一看，大P股也发大，呕哈哈了，心更乱。这心态一乱，还炒个鬼股咩，回家炒菜好了。
资金管理，对你的心态，也有相对重要的作用。合理的资金分配，不但对风险control有好处，也对让个股赢大利打下基础。资金管理，也反应了个人的greedy程度。要发大急财的，往往会押的重。对，搞中了，你会发，但你会再押，结果有一天。。。见外婆了。有本书，＂When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management＂，不错， 大家有空看看。
财不入急门，这不是无的放矢的。
在目前这点位，我基本是cash 和 long holding 对半。原因很简单，我believe今年rally没完。为此，我今年内，会avoid做short，但在这点位，我sold covered calls。我也不加long。 因为，我觉得，会有更好的入点。
Analysis，我在blog里讲多了，不累赘。有follow我blog的，也该看到，我年初就说过，今年有两大rallies。这是第一个。同时，大家也看到，我对这一坡rally，早段没抓好，有误判。但要是以为我会一根筋的short到屁股通红，也太给我面子了。我那有这胆？
目前，market处于consolidation阶段。 Instead of guessing 这market会从此再冲，或有大回调， 我觉得，这是identify sectors 和个股的时机，为下一波作准备的时候。我倒是要指出一点，market大掉，是political incorrect，对银行用股市作ATM套钱也不利。
鉴于公开sectors和个股，后果是吃力不讨好，我打算开个要password的group，和有interest的朋友探讨。是免费的，输了别骂我。赢了，你们自己donate一点给中国的贫困学生，也是美事。等我有空setup了，再公布。
反正，没有好的心态，在股市中，你肯定没有芙蓉姐姐快乐。 |
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发表于 2009-5-20 02:06 PM
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