House market could hit bottom

dara

Two houses close to mine were on the market 3 weeks ago and had open house in 2 weekends, now both are "sales pending".  I talked to one of the owner, he got lots of offers.

Yes, the price is down 10%~15% comparing to last year.

buctusa

Agree, the housing market is close to bottom.

BUT, the price appreciation will be really low which is just close to inflation rate.

The point is DO NOT Expect housing bull market in the next 20 years!

polopolo

Without inflation, turn around in housing is difficult, given that Americans already have too much debt.

So the question is, when is inflation gonna come?

Right now I started thinking too many people are betting on the inflation/hyperinflation side. I started wondering if hyperinflation will come at all.

CoolMax

No way!

The only way you could sale a house quick in current market condition is put it on fire sale. even the house is in sales pending status, still no sure if it can get loan at end. I saw lots of house take off from the market and then back to market few month later with lower price. because buyer can't get loan with their little down payment and credit scores.
Simplely lots of buyer are not qualified with current tight standard.

For the areas I'm monitoring closely, the house price keeps drifting lower and lower. no sign of bottom yet.

BSW

1# dara

It is probably too early to say that.  Quick sale of a few houses at a specific locality in a short period of time does not make a new trend, let alone predicting the general market across the board.  The recent increased activities in housing markets in quite some areas perhaps are more likely due to seasonality (typical spring rally), government incentives (e.g., tax credits like the $8K by federal government and $10k by the state of California), and super low mortgage rates, rather than the market likely hitting bottom now.


BTW, Fitch predicted that housing prices in California, Florida and Arizona have additional 20%-38% to fall (click the link below).   Of course, the prediction may not be taken too seriously (given that there is too much unknown and unpredictable about the economy).  But who knows, they could be right.

http://www.businesswire.com/port ... 695&newsLang=en

ziteng_rhein

No way!

The only way you could sale a house quick in current market condition is put it on fire sale. even the house is in sales pending status, still no sure if it can get loan at end. I saw lots  ...
CoolMax 发表于 2009-5-19 16:15

受用

dara

No way!

The only way you could sale a house quick in current market condition is put it on fire sale. even the house is in sales pending status, still no sure if it can get loan at end. I saw lots  ...
CoolMax 发表于 2009-5-19 16:15

The price is down 10~15% compared to last year.

But there are lots of offers, that does mean something.

CoolMax

The price is down 10~15% compared to last year.

But there are lots of offers, that does mean something.
dara 发表于 2009-5-19 06:36 PM

BabyBoomers who is trapped by decline house market will try to sell their BIG house in any rebounce.
So how many new buyers are need to hold this market?

polopolo

8# dara


It means most people are not used to the fact that "house price can drop". If you have been taught for the last 50 years that "house price can not drop", then "10% drop" is a great deal.

polopolo

9# CoolMax


Wait, babyboomers can't sell, because they have taken second mortgage and now are under water.