狗剩内部信息

maserati

Here are some quotes from this AM's GS market data points. This is internal info GS sends out to different departments every AM. I am not impressed by its content. Actually I would say that a lot of posts here at HT are better than this piece of crap from GS.

"- Why this is more than a bear market rally. Peter Oppenheimer: (i) The market is up 28% from its lows; many investors believe it is just a bear market rally. We think there is more upside, at least in the short term, as inventory re-stocking and survey data suggest stronger activity data ahead. Our Macro Trading Strategies colleagues have argued that while the market has paid for the recent improvements in the macro data, it has not necessarily paid up for the further progress we expect over the next few months. We find that the market tends to 'front load' future returns in such a way that the strongest part of the typical bull market is during the phase when economic and profit growth is still negative, but the deterioration is slowing. The period, for example, when the ISM goes from its trough towards 50 (still consistent with economic contraction) generally delivers much higher annualised returns than during the phase when the economy starts expanding again and profits grow (annualized performance covering 16 ISM cycles for the US since 1950: (a) Peak to 50: +6.4% (11 months). (b) 50 to trough: +3.1% (8 months). (c) Trough to 50 (4.5 months): +22.5%. (d) 50 to peak: +13.4% (11 months)). The initial move out of bear markets, until the first 10% sell-off, is typically 40-45% and lasts for six months. (ii) Medium-term view: After the initial bull market phase, deleveraging and a slow economic recovery is likely to make the equity market stall at some point later this year or next. (iii) Long-term view: The crucial determinant of long-term returns is actually not the rate of profit growth, or even GDP, but the price at which you buy equities at the outset. Buying when the risk premium is unusually high, as is currently the case, suggests that future returns are likely to be good and significantly above the returns available in cash and bonds.

- Feedback from meetings with large macro hedge funds & leading mutual funds last week - no predominant consensus view - hedge funds more bearish - bull & bear arguments. Last week our US Portfolio Strategy team held meetings with several large macro hedge funds and leading mutual fund institutions. In general, the hedge fund community expressed more bearish views than real-money investors. However, there is no predominant “consensus” view on either the equity market or the economic outlook. BULLs' views: (a) The market has successfully absorbed $40 billion of new capital over the past week. (b) Cash on the sidelines may flow back into equities. Commentary from the Goldman Sachs CIO Conference Survey indicated that underweight equities and Financials positions may signal future inflows. (c) Melt-up scenario is possible. Several of the more optimistic. Underweight equity allocations may reverse and managers may seek higher beta stocks, propelling the market higher. Clients who hold this view noted that an economic stabilization is still a requirement, but that the tentative signs of stability we have already observed have started to attract reluctant investors back into the market. BEARs' views: (a) Chief Investment Officers expect significant pullback. (b) Green shoots or not, the market has run up too fast and needs to embrace a disappointing 2010 economic outlook.

-Corporates & insiders sellers of equities. TrimTabs: So far this quarter, the $62.9 billion in new shares companies have sold has been 2.9 times higher than the $21.5 billion in cash takeovers and share repurchases they have announced. Also, insider selling of $3.7 billion has been 9.0 times higher than the $410 million in insider buying. Corporate activity has turned even more bearish recently. So far in May, corporate selling of $40.8 billion has been a whopping 6.5 times higher than the $6.2 billion in corporate buying.

- The largest weekly inflow into US equity funds since the credit crunch began might have marked the peak of this rally. The Investment Company Institute reports that in the week ended Wednesday, May 6, U.S. equity funds posted an inflow of $9.8 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since the credit crunch began."

buctusa

BSC

thanks

Circle

"a lot of posts here at HT are better than this piece of crap from GS"
agree with u.

ultimate

thanks

天真的冷酷

hoho....

wiggler

thanks