The SPX is likely to decline by 50 - 70 points in the next 2 - 3 days (zt)

enrontyco · 发表于 2009-5-15 12:42 AM

本帖最后由 enrontyco 于 2009-5-15 01:44 编辑

I have to issue a STRONG warning to everyone. The SPX is likely to decline by 50 - 70 points in the next 2 - 3 days. You have to get out of long positions and/or buy downside protection this afternoon. The current rally is the last opportunity.

What is it that turns me so bearish? Several intermarket correlations are about to align for a strong downturn.

1. EUR/USD is setting up a first HS that is good for about 200 pips, initially, (later on even more). EUR/JPY sets up for a HS that is good for 500 pips on the downside.

http://charts.barchart.com/chart ... =BSTKIC&org=stk

(disregard the bad tick near the left)

2. Professional traders know what is going on. They buy AGGRESSIVELY May Vix calls, which expire next week, Wednesday, 9:30 am.

From Reuters:
"About 73,000 call options on the CBOE Volatility Index have changed hands, already exceeding their norm ahead of next week's expiration, according to Trade Alert. 'It looks like traders are placing upside bets on higher volatility in May and June,' said Chris McKhann, analyst at optionMonster.com. The May 42.50 strikes are among the busiest contracts with 19,861 traded against an open interest of 25,767 lots, Reuters data showed. Some traders might be closing positions ahead of next Wednesday, when VIX May options go off the board, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy. The June 37.5 and 55 VIX calls have also attracted interest, with more than 10,000 and 31,700 contracts traded, respectively. "

3. Everyone checking the SPX will see the potential HS formation. Together with the just deteriorating market internals, this is a very ominous omen.

4. Oil had a strong reversal yesterday. I am looking for a fall sub 50.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s ... amp;id=p35134268603

enrontyco · 发表于 2009-5-15 12:50 AM

IMO, SPX will have 30 - 40 points drop in the next couple of days

temujin · 发表于 2009-5-15 07:33 AM

thanks

lwmm · 发表于 2009-5-15 07:37 AM

good

长叶草 · 发表于 2009-5-15 08:26 AM

sugar · 发表于 2009-5-15 09:31 AM

rightonmoney · 发表于 2009-5-15 10:11 AM

ding

gege88 · 发表于 2009-5-15 04:21 PM

energy will go down in summer? ?

xiaozhu · 发表于 2009-5-16 09:13 AM

Maybe

eiknarf · 发表于 2009-5-17 05:57 PM

嘴巴大不一定赢

dennis · 发表于 2009-5-17 06:23 PM

不象professional 的

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