声明：关于牛熊

bayliner1979

单独开一贴了。

有几个青蛙说俺最近做熊，这个是不懂TA的傻帽话。
不光俺了，几个懂TA的老大，像Cobra，CoolMax都被嘲笑。

TA rule No. X:
Healthy pullback is a prerequisite of a real bull market.
The smallest healthy pullback is 38.2% Fibo retrace, then 50% retrace, then 61.8% retrace.

All TAers who are actually bulls are expecting the minimal 38.2% retrace during the rally, but there was none.   Then it becomes very fishy.

Nevertheless, if this time SPX does drop to 805 and rebound, then it is still healthy and the target is at least 943.   Rule No. X claims healthiness as long as the valid pullback happens and holds.

I predicted the arrival of 943 in this rally a few weeks ago in my SPX 2009 Notes post.   Now I am still holding the opinion.   But the precondition is a healthy pullback to 805 and holds.  Therefore, fuck those frogs and ignore what they think, I am actually a healthy bull, as I am shorting SPY OTM puts.   :-)

新低手

等回调买dip

bayliner1979

And with properly set stop loss limit.

等回调买dip
新低手 发表于 2009-5-1 17:47

bayliner1979

判断市场猪市时的赚钱做法，是做short strangle.

In finance, a strangle is an investment strategy involving the purchase or sale of particular option derivatives that allows the holder to profit based on how much the price of the underlying security moves, with relatively minimal exposure to the direction of price movement. The purchase of particular option derivatives is known as a long strangle, while the sale of the option derivatives is known as a short strangle.

niufen88

多谢

bayliner1979

The long strangle involves going long (buying) both a call option and a put option of the same underlying security. Like a long straddle, the options expire at the same time, but unlike a straddle, the options have different strike prices. The owner of a long strangle makes a profit if the underlying price moves far enough way from the current price, either above or below. Thus, an investor may take a long strangle position if he thinks the underlying security is highly volatile, but does not know which direction it is going to move. This position is a limited risk, since the most a purchaser may lose is the cost of both options. At the same time, there is unlimited profit potential.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wiki ... strangle_option.svg

长叶草

做熊还是做牛，要看大市

bayliner1979

The short strangle is the converse of the long strangle. The call and put options are written (sold) instead of bought. The investor loses if the underlying security increases or decreases enough; but if the stock price remains stable then the options expire and the investor gets to keep the premiums.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wiki ... strangle_option.svg

bayliner1979

OE前的大市偏猪。

往上不容易：Rising wedge的上沿比较平，即使不断higher high，被上沿挡下来也高不了多少，最近这个无pullback(回调)的rally已经没有力气进行大突破去break wedge's upperline.

往下也比较难：GS等MM的position放在那里，它们不出完货，不可能大跌。

做熊还是做牛，要看大市
长叶草 发表于 2009-5-1 18:14

benmao

老大，请多发些这样的科普贴哈。。。

meow

I have a friend didn't know anything about market,but he is making a lot more then us.
sometimes simple is the best.

buctusa

How did he make?

I have a friend didn't know anything about market,but he is making a lot more then us.
sometimes simple is the best.
meow 发表于 2009-5-1 18:31

meow

How did he make?


buctusa 发表于 2009-5-1 18:54

when he sees price is cheap,he buys and holding it, he doesn't care up or down. when he sees nice profit, he sold it, and wait.

RedCedar

Thanks!

temujin

Swearing is allowed in this forum, in a sticky thread?  Very impressive knowledge, let's all bow our heads to the master.

yam

佩服老大的TA功底！今天，俺那贴不是针对你，只是觉得HT应该是学习交流的地方。如有得罪，多有包涵。

happyface

老大你一直是俺的暗恋对像俺很佩服你

bayliner1979

我觉得您就和O8的拥趸一样，O8的一个buzzword "change"，然后就成了偶像。
那位老兄一个buzzword "buy dip"，也就成了您的偶像。
这二位除了个buzzword之外，没看到什么过人的分析和远见，基本上是发一些捣糨糊的内容，含糊其辞，因为这样最容易混。而像多吉则给了具体数字，creekMM,chuxue画波也给出具体点位，这样即使错了，也是真功夫，而不是某些政客式的混世魔王的一时忽悠。

Swearing is allowed in this forum, in a sticky thread?  Very impressive knowledge, let's all bow our heads to the master.
temujin 发表于 2009-5-1 19:27

Cobra

我觉得您就和O8的拥趸一样，O8的一个buzzword "change"，然后就成了偶像。
那位老兄一个buzzword "buy dip"，也就成了您的偶像。
这二位除了个buzzword之外，没看到什么过人的分析和远见，基本上是发一些捣糨糊的内 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-5-1 20:21

老大，人家都不说了，你也就不要说了吧。咱只讨论股票吧。

bayliner1979

呵呵，我回的这位是拉偏架的，在我的好几个帖里和我较了好几回劲儿了。

老大，人家都不说了，你也就不要说了吧。咱只讨论股票吧。
Cobra 发表于 2009-5-1 20:25