Don't expect a rebound, better not to buy on dip

n748

Now that I don't hold any short position. I feel I'm more comfortable to say something with a neutral standpoint.

A lot of people are expecting a rebound from today's drop, saying MM would not make it straight, say to 780. I would say, no, don't bet your money on that.

Remember what happened on this uptrend move? Everyone expected a pullback to catch the train, and it never gave you an opportunity to load. As a result, it attracted a lot of people who baught on dip (a learned and were truely reenforced behavior in the past 6 weeks). However to better take advantage of this group of people?

Knowing there will be a lot of people to buy at dip (such as today's close, or even earlier, or perhaps later, say tomorrow's close if another down day), MM would unload their remaining position to those people relentlessly, until they lost their hope of a rebound, that's when a rebound comes.

I know a lot of people still believe the uptrend is still untouched, so this is just a small pullback. However, I still don't believe the rally, given the way how it unfolded itself, even though I no longer hold any short position at this moment.

moneymaker

farshine

summer123

dara

Haha, most of HTers are bears, "a lot of people still believe the uptrend is still untouched," is not true for HTers.

Anyone holding lots of Long overnight at this level is insane, but it would be very dangerous to holding lots of shorts too.

Best thing is do some day -trading or holding very light pos overnight.

n748

5# dara


that's exactly what I plan to do. Too risky to hold positions overnight.

Besides, being burdened by the overnight position negatively impact my ability to excecute my trading plan during the day, I'm usually over occupied by those positions and could not pay attention to better opportunities.

sniffer

1# n748

I have learnt lots from last rally (if it is over). You are right... 一句名言：“领导先走“    I bought FAZ@50, thought I was smart to grab a good position and holding till it was 14.xx.. smashed my dream!.. When you are not sure the market, holding crash is frog's best position.

Thank you very much

colderdown

5# dara


I don't understand your points. Hold long @870 is just too greedy. Taking risk to chase last "possible" 5%? Risk/reward does not favor long at all. On the other side, 5% SS, I would be happy for that since this rally has no FA support at all. Shorts can hold until 828 reached at least. Below 815, shorts need to be careful.

Never never fully loaded in the MIDDLE of bear market, long or short.

tfmegatron

up leg还没有完，操作上按pull back调整波处理。。。

raise3

holding crash? how?

1# n748

I have learnt lots from last rally (if it is over). You are right... 一句名言：“领导先走“    I bought FAZ@50, thought I was smart to grab a good position and holding till it was 14.xx.. ...
sniffer 发表于 2009-4-20 23:30

nasa1100

sniffer

holding crash? how?

raise3 发表于 2009-4-20 23:41

Sorry for mis-typing : holding cash. Thanks

wxw

u got it

跟风者

seabiscuit

Without a position, your analysis can aid your intuition without any distortion. It is great that you have shared it with us.  It is highly appreciated.   

lucy

kkc

wuyanwuyan

qiangge

nasa1100

Fas 5.6 x10000.00