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发表于 2021-1-10 02:28 PM
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本帖最后由 peppapig 于 2021-1-10 02:45 PM 编辑
胡同0110 发表于 2021-1-10 12:49 PM
补充谈一点,收益率曲线的问题。 长期收益率曲线已经上升,美元借机反弹,但这只是昙 ...
Very good point, in anticipation of the stimulus/infrastructure bill detail getting revealed on next Thursday, the 10 year treasure rate might continue to go up in the very near term.
Although I'm not sure about the direction afterwards, as I'm quite worried about the virus situation which might get very ugly in the next couple of months, but maybe Market will look through this.
In the long run, I guess it will take a while before FED starts to worry about the yield curve being too steep but you had a great point of FED eventually capping the long end of the curve to reduce the cost of government borrowing and to further boost the economy, which echoes my point above.
People can take a look at this "Operation Twist" link below, which has been used by Fed in the past to manipulate the shape of the yield curve:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operation-twist.asp
This was used in 1961 and recently 2011.
"In 2011, the Fed could not reduce short-term rates any further since the rates were already at zero. The alternative then was to lower long-term interest rates. To achieve this, the Fed sold short-term Treasury securities and bought long-term Treasuries, which pressured the long-term bond yields downward, thereby, boosting the economy.
As short-term Treasury bills and notes matured, the Fed would use the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasury notes and bonds. The effect on short-term interest rates was minimal as the Fed had committed to keeping short-term interest rates near zero for the next couple of years.
During this time, the yield on 2-year bonds was close to zero and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, the benchmark bond for interest rates on all fixed-rate loans, was only about 1.95%.
A fall in interest rates reduces the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals. When these entities have access to loans at low interest rates, spending in the economy increases and unemployment falls as businesses can affordably secure capital to expand and finance their projects."
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