GS released its earning minus 1 month of loss. If you dig deep, you can see they wrote off lots of loss in Dec 2008, and the AIG payment was also put into Dec. But they lost ~1.2B, and the real loss is bigger if our money is not factored in. GS also blamed commercial real estate for its loss. This suggest that another wave of write down is coming. One should keep in mind, GS is relatively strong among the 19 banks undergoing stress test.
The 90 day foreclosure moratorium is going to end or already ended for the banks, and we will see a wave of foreclosures soon.
OB came out giving his glimmers of hope outlook but also warned tougher times ahead. Well, GM is going burst maybe Chrysler too. That will add another few percentage of unemployment which may well approach the worst condition of what the stress test is set for. But what if the condition got worse. Will banks need another stress test? I think today's speech is to lay a ground work of some sought. Getting more money for bailout? Chill suckers who are trying to chase the rally, so later he can say I told you so? Something for sure. Oh, I forgot about the PPIP. I guess we all forgot that extended the deadline to when, April 20 some. Maybe not so many private investors?
Treasury is considering release some stress test results. Why some but not the whole result? What are we hiding? Nobody knows.
I already sold 1/3 of my financial ETFs and added some bear market ETFs yesterday. I will see how this week will play out and decide whether all out or just ride the wave into May, a usually good month for stock. But I will not chase this rally, even if it goes towards 950. The higher it goes, the lower it will land later. That is my thought. |
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发表于 2009-4-14 08:21 PM
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发表于 2009-4-14 09:13 PM
