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[讨论] 这里网友开玩笑也提到,加央行停止QE就是因为房价狂涨

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发表于 2020-10-19 09:07 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


这里网友开玩笑也提到,加央行停止QE就是因为房价狂涨,大家觉得是这样吗?

我看了一下rate,并没有大幅增长。看起来央行停止QE,暂时没有啥影响啊。

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发表于 2020-10-19 10:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
BoC老大一向主张拼命放水不要管水漫金山,现在突然关闸是不是受到压力。
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发表于 2020-10-19 11:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
抢救室转到重症监护室
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 11:18 AM | 显示全部楼层
foolmelon 发表于 2020-10-19 10:46 AM
BoC老大一向主张拼命放水不要管水漫金山,现在突然关闸是不是受到压力。

嗯,是很奇怪啊。
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发表于 2020-10-19 11:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 01:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 11:51 AM https://betterdwelling.com/bank- ... l-estate-prices-sur ...
谢谢!


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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 01:36 PM | 显示全部楼层

Bank Of Canada Ending Pandemic Program That Helped Real Estate Prices Surge

https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... -Surge-1170x781.jpg 1170w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... s-Surge-768x513.jpg 768w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... Surge-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... ces-Surge-75x50.jpg 75w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... s-Surge-210x140.jpg 210w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... es-Surge-140x93.jpg 140w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... -Surge-1126x752.jpg 1126w, https://betterdwelling.com/wp-co ... te-Prices-Surge.jpg 1920w" data-lazy-loaded="1" sizes="(max-width:2560px) 100vw, 2560px" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; vertical-align: middle; height: auto; max-width: 100%;">

On the day Canadian home sales and prices hit record highs, the central bank announces an end to the program partially responsible for the surge. The Bank of Canada (BoC) flooded the market with cheap mortgage credit in March. Yesterday, as market data showed a fever pitch had been reached during the “worst” recession in years, they committed to stopping the program. The bond buying program that helped drive rapid price growth, comes to an end this month.

Canada Mortgage Bonds 

First, a quick refresher (or intro) to Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMBs). Lenders originate mortgages, pool them, then sell the pool as mortgage backed securities (MBS) to the government. To pay for the MBS, the government sells CMBs to investors to get the funds. The cash flow from the MBS, is then used to pay investors holding the CMBs. In other words, a CMB is a state-backed security for mortgage financing in Canada. Easy, right? Totally obvious, and I’m sure you got that on the first read. 

These influence the cost of borrowing based demand for these bonds. When investor demand for CMBs rises, interest paid to investors falls. When demand falls, interest paid should rise. It’s a simple concept based on demand of the free market, which changes based on the risk environment. Except in a country that may have a housing bubble. Then when demand evaporates due to risk – the state steps in.


Last year, real estate markets began to see sales volumes drop and price growth stall. The BoC decided, for unrelated reasons *wink, wink*, they would buy CMBs to improve liquidity. Improve liquidity is bankster for, keep rates lower than the market wants them to be. When a buyer picks up any lack of demand, they prevent any increases. This puts a cap on how much interest paid can rise. There’s always a buyer willing to buy in this case, so there’s no need to increase how much is offered. The purchases climbed very slowly, as the weeks went on.

When the pandemic struck, the BoC treated CMBs like toilet paper and hand sanitizer – by hoarding. They began buying them on a competitive basis, meaning they didn’t just buy what couldn’t be sold. They actively competed with bidders, driving rates lower. Normally in periods of increased risk, funding is supposed to become more expensive. This lowers the risk of losses to households borrowing.

Instead, the BoC flooded the market with the cheapest money possible. Who cares what risks households face, right? Essentially, they provided a trap and inflated asset values as unemployment increased. One of the few times in history this has occurred.

BOC Mortgage Bond Spree Rises Over 1,710%

Just how carried away did they get with purchasing CMBs? The central bank now holds $9.32 billion of CMBs as of Oct 7, up 4.91% from a month before. This represents an increase of 1,710.1% from the same week last year. For context, from March to August this balance increased $8.10 billion. Total mortgage credit growth only grew $42.10 billion during this time. This shows how astronomically large the scale of this operation was, and understandably helped inflate asset values. 

Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMBs) Held By The BoC

The dollar value of Canada Mortgage Bonds held as assets by the Bank of Canada, in billions of dollars.
https://betterdwelling.com/bank- ... TRACT_RENDERER_ID_1)">12-19-20181-9-20191-30-20192-20-20193-13-20194-3-20194-24-20195-15-20196-5-20196-26-20197-17-20198-7-20198-28-20199-18-201910-9-201910-30-201911-20-201912-11-20191-1-20201-22-20202-12-20203-4-20203-25-20204-15-20205-6-20205-27-20206-17-20207-8-20207-29-20208-19-20209-9-20209-30-2020$0$2$4$6$8$10Canadian Dollars (in billions)
WeekCanadian Dollars (in billions)
12-19-20180
12-26-20180.25
1-2-20190.25
1-9-20190.25
1-16-20190.25
1-23-20190.25
1-30-20190.25
2-6-20190.25
2-13-20190.25
2-20-20190.25
2-27-20190.25
3-6-20190.25
3-13-20190.25
3-20-20190.25
3-27-20190.52
4-3-20190.52
4-10-20190.52
4-17-20190.52
4-24-20190.52
5-1-20190.52
5-8-20190.52
5-15-20190.52
5-22-20190.52
5-29-20190.52
6-5-20190.52
6-12-20190.52
6-19-20190.51
6-26-20190.51
7-3-20190.51
7-10-20190.51
7-17-20190.51
7-24-20190.51
7-31-20190.51
8-7-20190.51
8-14-20190.51
8-21-20190.51
8-28-20190.51
9-4-20190.51
9-11-20190.51
9-18-20190.51
9-25-20190.52
10-2-20190.52
10-9-20190.52
10-16-20190.52
10-23-20190.52
10-30-20190.52
11-6-20190.52
11-13-20190.52
11-20-20190.52
11-27-20190.52
12-4-20190.52
12-11-20190.52
12-18-20190.51
12-25-20190.51
1-1-20200.51
1-8-20200.51
1-15-20200.51
1-22-20200.51
1-29-20200.51
2-5-20200.51
2-12-20200.51
2-19-20200.51
2-26-20200.51
3-4-20200.51
3-11-20200.51
3-18-20201.01
3-25-20201.38
4-1-20201.93
4-8-20202.73
4-15-20203
4-22-20203.84
4-29-20204.02
5-6-20204.5
5-13-20205.27
5-20-20205.53
5-27-20206
6-3-20206.4
6-10-20206.56
6-17-20207.11
6-24-20207.26
7-1-20207.45
7-8-20207.61
7-15-20207.72
7-22-20207.95
7-29-20208.1
8-5-20208.23
8-12-20208.29
8-19-20208.47
8-26-20208.61
9-2-20208.74
9-9-20208.89
9-16-20208.95
9-23-20209.08
9-30-20209.13
10-7-20209.32
Source: Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling.

The BoC announced they’ll put an end to their mortgage bond hoarding. The central bank has notified investors they’ll end their program on October 26, 2020. Without a surge of deep pocketed investors looking for crap yields, this will likely slow mortgage rates from falling further. They did inject a lot of liquidity, so an increase may not be in the cards for a while. However, they are still forecasting mortgage defaults will rise by multiples. The bank had always maintained this would be the case in Q1 2021, rising through next year.

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 01:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 11:51 AM
https://betterdwelling.com/bank-of-canada-ending-pandemic-program-that-helped-real-estate-prices-sur ...

我其实不太明白,买这些债券,只是让利率降低,大家要愿意借钱才能享受到利率降低的好处。我的意思是BOC的做法真的对房市影响那么大吗?恐怕还是人心在作怪吧?大家都想趁着疫情,利息低大捞一笔,然后疫情过了可以趁高价卖了?
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发表于 2020-10-19 01:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 zzcheng 于 2020-10-19 01:55 PM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2020-10-19 01:41 PM
我其实不太明白,买这些债券,只是让利率降低,大家要愿意借钱才能享受到利率降低的好处。我的意思是BOC的 ...


http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=441674
4楼第一句话就是答案

另外,别老是在数据里找答案,有时候得去“现场”,疫情期间,做过一个调研,分别打电话给几个大行贷款经纪,假说自己想贷款买房,年报税收入4~5万,呵呵,几乎每家大银行贷款经纪都说可以贷50万以上,什么收入4倍,压力测试统统没人遵守。

贷款之松,超乎想象。

BMO有一个资深贷款女经纪信心十足的说她非常忙碌,房价绝对不可能下跌!我不知道她信心来自于哪里?

今后,你也电话可以试试
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 01:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 01:54 PM
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=441674
4楼第一句话就是答案

天哪。我是直接去银行做,银行要求很严,难道这些贷款经纪可以特殊?还是他们是从其他贷款机构搞的?
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发表于 2020-10-19 02:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 zzcheng 于 2020-10-19 02:15 PM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2020-10-19 01:57 PM
天哪。我是直接去银行做,银行要求很严,难道这些贷款经纪可以特殊?还是他们是从其他贷款机构搞的?


打开51加国或者约克论坛,点击贷款经纪广告,然后随机找各个银行的贷款经纪,然后分别电话他们,假设你要贷款,然后说你报税收入,你可以假设任何数字比如4万~10万,然后你再看看这些人是怎么回答你的

这种调研,隔半年做一次,换一批贷款人士,大致就知道当前贷款政策的松紧了
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 02:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 02:02 PM
打开51加国或者约克论坛,点击贷款经纪广告,然后随机找各个银行的贷款经纪,然后分别电话他们,假设你要 ...

好,谢谢!但是他们可能不是从大银行贷款吧?利息会高点?
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发表于 2020-10-19 02:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 zzcheng 于 2020-10-19 02:13 PM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2020-10-19 02:10 PM
好,谢谢!但是他们可能不是从大银行贷款吧?利息会高点?


大银行,只有一家没接受,把我电话转给他的朋友,然后他的朋友教我如何“包装”。。。。。。。。。。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 02:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 02:11 PM
大银行,只有一家没接受,把我电话转给他的朋友,然后他的朋友教我如何“包装”。。。。。。。。。。。 ...

我靠。这以后都是我们纳税人的钱救啊。
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发表于 2020-10-19 03:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 foolmelon 于 2020-10-19 03:11 PM 编辑
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 02:11 PM
大银行,只有一家没接受,把我电话转给他的朋友,然后他的朋友教我如何“包装”。。。。。。。。。。。 ...


我来这里这么多年,也就最近3-4年听说有“包装”这事。 那些人胆子真大,一旦被逮住跟你一辈子。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 06:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
foolmelon 发表于 2020-10-19 03:09 PM
我来这里这么多年,也就最近3-4年听说有“包装”这事。 那些人胆子真大,一旦被逮住跟你一辈子。


是啊,但是看我周围跟我说这事的,轻描淡写,都去做了,都没当回事。这可是金融欺诈啊,参见孟公主。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 06:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 02:11 PM
大银行,只有一家没接受,把我电话转给他的朋友,然后他的朋友教我如何“包装”。。。。。。。。。。。 ...

其实很简单,打电话找有关部门揭发就行了,也许房产泡沫就破了,呵呵。
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发表于 2020-10-19 06:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 zzcheng 于 2020-10-19 06:33 PM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2020-10-19 06:02 PM
其实很简单,打电话找有关部门揭发就行了,也许房产泡沫就破了,呵呵。


太幼稚了!

这些无论是政府高层还是银行高层都早知道了,眼开眼闭而已,房地产商国家支柱产业,只要不是涨的太过分,谁会去管,到了极其影响民生阶段政府才会出手干预(比如 2017年初跳涨30%),但是骨子里政府也不希望它暴跌,记住:这里真正的幕后大庄家是政府。

所以这次疫情假如真的拖的很久,那么到了补助发不出来的时候,那么泡沫就会破灭,不过按照以前惯例,政府应该会继续大量印钞,宁可让加币汇率大跌来化解部分
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-10-19 06:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
zzcheng 发表于 2020-10-19 06:30 PM
太幼稚了!

这些无论是政府高层还是银行高层都早知道了,眼开眼闭而已,房地产商国家支柱产业,只要 ...

你可能不记得曾经有家公司被爆出贷款作假的事情,然后这家公司股价暴跌,后来巴菲特出面狠狠的咬了一口。

这种贷款作假的事情,我相信迟早会爆出来,等到房市崩的时候,这类消息就会爆出来。坏消息也是一帮财团牟利的手段,等着看吧,哈哈。
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发表于 2020-10-19 06:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
我问过五大行的三个,贷款要求很严,刚预批,10万年薪贷50多万,审头期也很严
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