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发表于 2009-3-21 09:47 AM
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it is so quick. The new policy is coming:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/To ... o-apf-14707954.html
Now, we need figure out the impact and feasibility of this. I think the key is still whether gov can attract private sector to buy toxic asset. The M2M change may not encourage banks to sell those assets, since they have bigger leeway on their income statement and balance sheet. And Ben's speech on letting banks fall also discourages banks to realize unrealized loss. So the asset prices have to be high enough for banks to sell. On the other hand, if the prices are too high, HF will not take it, even gov gives them low or zero funding cost. Probably, gov thinks the toxic asset prices are already fire sale price; and as long as they can build a market, the price would go up. I have no pricing experice on pricing ABS/CMO/MBS/CMBS. But I will ask my friends in this field to check their opinion. But my instinction tells me given the growing unemployment rate and increasing saving rate, I highly doubt that the toxic asset prices can go higher, since default rates will go higher. I guess to completely get out of this bubble, inflation even hyperinflation is the only way. |
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