一而再，再而衰，三而竭

Summerrose

我没有收你一分钱，因此我的言行导致你亏了钱的话，不要怪我，也不要骂我。我也不会说一声对不起。甚至会说你活该。你自己的钱，你自己负责。平生最恨那些得了便宜还要卖乖，亏了钱就骂大街的鸟人。

小亥

此一时不如彼一时。870in your dream

Laoda

1# Summerrose


I do not agree with you this time. Last Novemebr is a mid-term bottom which has held for several month and had a huge volume at 11/21. This one, we did not even see any panic. No panic, no bottom! Volume! Volume! Volume! Only volume tell the truth!

风清扬

源济

pt6

感谢，只要 有内容不是干放炮，就值得读。都是市场未来可能走的轨迹。受益！！！

will

从天数来说,有很大的不同.

Summerrose

2# 小亥
No. It's not my dream. It's my conjecture.

hnhy

ricky

Thanks for the analysis/conjecture. 870 is a bit high 800-820 is probably more likely.

q13117

To: #3 LaoDa

>>>I do not agree with you this time. Last Novemebr is a mid-term bottom which has held for >>>several month and had a huge volume at 11/21. This one, we did not even see any >>>panic. No panic, no bottom! Volume! Volume! Volume! Only volume tell the truth!

From my note everyday, since 02/20/09 average daily volume among 16 trading days is highest. (7.6~8.0 billion - 4 days, 8.0+ ~ 9.0 billion - 9 days, 9.4+ ~ 10.00 billion - 3 days). However, since 11/17/08 OE week through 12/10/08 average daily volume among 16.5 days is not too high. Daily volume on 11/20/08 was 10.275 billion and daily volume on 11/21/08 was 9.497 billion as well as daily volume on 11/24/08 was 8.756 billion. Let's see detail - 3.0+ ~ 7.6 billion - 12 days (11/28/08 half day), 8.0+ ~ 9.0 billion - 1 day, 9.4+ ~ 10.00 billion - 1 day, 10.00+ billion - 1 day.  You can see only huge volumes above 8.0 billion since 11/21/08 were three days whereas recently huge volumes above 8.0 billion since 02/20/09 were 12 days. First time three-day huge volumes resulted in panic. This time 12-day huge volumes does not result in the panic which you refer to. But they can tell you truth. I guess MMs are building positions. FYI - Among JPM's trading volumes since 02/20/09 within 16 days, 14 days were 100+ million, 1 day was 85.6+ million and 1 day was 94.98 million; In January bottom, JPM's daily volumes above 100 million were 5 days; In 11/ 21/08 bottom, JPM's daily volumes above 100 million were 4 days. Brother, what conclusion do you get from these statistics? Just my thoughts...

q13117

Thanks for Summerrose's analysis ....

waterwater

Thank you for your conjecture.

agang

1# Summerrose
顶你的大字 和 小图！

Summerrose

3# Laoda
You better not agree with me. Most of time, my conjecture was wrong.
Indeed, the volume on Nov. 20 and Nov. 21 was impressive. However, the volume dropped sharply later. Below was the volume from Nov. 20 to Nov. 28:
9.1b, 9.5b, 7.9b, 7.0b, 5.8b, 2.7b. 42b in total in 6 trading days. Since trading was only half of day on Nov. 28, I'd add 2.7b to Nov. 28. Therefore the total volume was 44.7b.

This time, there was no spike in volume. But there was no significant drop in volume either. Below was the volume from March 6 to March 13:
7.3b, 7.3b, 8.6b, 7.3b, 7.3b, 6.8b. 44.6b in total in 6 trading days.

So, the conclusion is the volume from March 6 to 13 was no lower than the volume from Nov. 20 to Nov. 28. And the quality of the volume from March 6 to March 13 was better than Nov. 20 to Nov. 28.

(Source: Yahoo finance)

大泡泡

周线理论不成立。 可能应该看10月那根周线阳棒棒。 看了你的图， 下周必跌。

Summerrose

11# q13117
good analysis. thanks.

Summerrose

周线理论不成立。 可能应该看10月那根周线阳棒棒。 看了你的图， 下周必跌。
大泡泡 发表于 2009-3-14 19:18

为什么周线理论不成立？看十月的那根周线？
我没有说下周一定会收一根阳线。我是说先涨后跌。

大泡泡

为什么周线理论不成立？看十月的那根周线？
我没有说下周一定会收一根阳线。我是说先涨后跌。
Summerrose 发表于 2009-3-14 19:25

去年十月的周线上也有根大阳棒呀。就在十一月大样棒前。 周线上的slow stochastic 还没有positive divergence。比较十一月大阳棒之前的slow stochastic。 另外slow stochastic 现在在20 下。

Summerrose

7# will
是的。因为11月份跌的急，这次跌的缓慢。我觉得这次反弹的时间会更长。