Bullish SPY option activity

hohoho

The number after the "OI ALERT" is the delta from yesterday.

Since I just started collecting data the ave is only 3 days.  Not enough hist data to make any conclusion, but would like to share it.

For whatever I have here, it looks like more calls are written, while OI steadily decreased for puts... All these data points to a higher SPX tomorrow close, but it's hard to believe it.  Do I miss anything here, or these transactions are act of stupidity? Or the Yahoo data is not accurate?

OI ALERT 2166: SPY 20090220 2009 02 78.00c: ave vol 15969 oi 4327, cur vol 18643 oi 7574
OI ALERT 13723: SPY 20090220 2009 02 79.00c: ave vol 25981 oi 6470, cur vol 60207 oi 20957
OI ALERT 12023: SPY 20090220 2009 02 80.00c: ave vol 48086 oi 47728, cur vol 79388 oi 64203
OI ALERT 25380: SPY 20090220 2009 02 81.00c: ave vol 45634 oi 29563, cur vol 35924 oi 61536
OI ALERT 12706: SPY 20090220 2009 02 82.00c: ave vol 42971 oi 67372, cur vol 38932 oi 83961
OI ALERT 19134: SPY 20090220 2009 02 83.00c: ave vol 45155 oi 71998, cur vol 31202 oi 93000
OI ALERT 12307: SPY 20090220 2009 02 84.00c: ave vol 36208 oi 57585, cur vol 8435 oi 71151
OI ALERT -7700: SPY 20090220 2009 02 90.00c: ave vol 2147 oi 148158, cur vol 507 oi 140028
OI ALERT -10518: SPY 20090220 2009 02 73.00p: ave vol 10260 oi 132474, cur vol 4963 oi 124424
OI ALERT -17875: SPY 20090220 2009 02 80.00p: ave vol 78639 oi 149437, cur vol 61561 oi 126409
OI ALERT -17401: SPY 20090220 2009 02 82.00p: ave vol 29857 oi 138797, cur vol 22244 oi 116833
OI ALERT -10201: SPY 20090220 2009 02 83.00p: ave vol 10827 oi 98038, cur vol 3727 oi 85253
OI ALERT -13237: SPY 20090220 2009 02 85.00p: ave vol 11290 oi 102151, cur vol 4803 oi 84966
OI ALERT -9834: SPY 20090220 2009 02 86.00p: ave vol 1344 oi 69204, cur vol 719 oi 58233

vegas

how can you draw a conclusion that the activity is bullish?
from the data shown, you can say that MM exercised Puts(so put OI decreased) and wrote calls(so call OI increased)
1# hohoho

2brakefirst

The number after the "OI ALERT" is the delta from yesterday.

Since I just started collecting data the ave is only 3 days.  Not enough hist data to make any conclusion, but would like to share it.
...
hohoho 发表于 2009-2-19 17:52

hohoho

how can you draw a conclusion that the activity is bullish?
from the data shown, you can say that MM exercised Puts(so put OI decreased) and wrote calls(so call OI increased)
1# hohoho
vegas 发表于 2009-2-19 19:54

For some of the puts the vol is smaller than the decrease in OI, so the put buyer exercised as you said. They would have waited for tomorrow if they think it is going even lower if they don't actually have stock in hand. If they have stock then it does not matter if they exercise today or tomorrow. That is why I think those people think today is the best return.

The call buyers of course were betting the market go up...

vegas

interesting.
it seems it's important to know which transaction took place first.  puts or  calls?
if MM wrote call first then exercise puts, they are betting down.
if MM excised puts first then call transaction, they are trying to buy cheap calls.
is there any way to tell which happened first?
if MM 4# hohoho