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[灌水] About This Double Top Pattern

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发表于 2016-12-7 11:06 AM |显示全部楼层








Pros: below seasonality chart shows similar double-top pattern from previous two years.  Will it work again this time?  Nobody knows.  All we know is that seasonality for next week is quite bearish.  

Cons: I see too many people are currently betting on this double-top pattern, which I think quite risky because there isn't any solid signal to suggest this pattern will get executed this time. VIX:VXV is quite low, but so what?  It can remain in such low level for quite sometime.

Conclusion:  I don't know what kind of short-term signals you are using to trade, while mine are still showing bulls in control for now.  
sc1.png
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发表于 2016-12-7 11:30 AM |显示全部楼层
Nice to see you again.

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发表于 2016-12-7 11:36 AM |显示全部楼层
Risk Control, Discipline, Money Management
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股神

发表于 2016-12-7 12:16 PM |显示全部楼层
good point.  
发现市场运行趋势,跟随这个趋势,直至趋势改变
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发表于 2016-12-7 01:11 PM |显示全部楼层
The probability for a higher high ahead after any pulling back is very high.  I consider shorting here as a swing/short-term trade is dumb.
sc1.png
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”  George Soros
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发表于 2016-12-7 01:13 PM |显示全部楼层
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活跃达人

发表于 2016-12-7 01:41 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-12-7 01:57 PM |显示全部楼层
Bulls must be VERY CAREFUL here or else................
sc1.png
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”  George Soros
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开国元勋 年度功勋

发表于 2016-12-7 04:04 PM |显示全部楼层
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria
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发表于 2016-12-7 05:15 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-12-7 05:27 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-12-7 08:18 PM |显示全部楼层
Big movement today is NOT unexpected (check out blue vertical lines).

Those who plan to short this market, you might have to wait for a bit longer.
sc1.png
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”  George Soros
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发表于 2016-12-7 08:23 PM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 luckystar2006 于 2016-12-7 08:24 PM 编辑

Here is a statistic that you guys should pay attention to.

Big up on Wednesday tend to get erased by next Friday (not this Friday) before quarter options expiration date.

Good luck...

P.S. This statistic only works during quarter expiration month.
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发表于 2016-12-7 10:24 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-12-9 10:37 AM |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 luckystar2006 于 2016-12-9 10:39 AM 编辑

Posted in a wrong thread.......
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”  George Soros
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