AIQuant 最近作了一个简单的统计,发现在过去79年中,9,10月不hold stock, 比一
直hold盈利高8.6倍。
Dow changed from Oct. 1, 1928 240.01 to Jan. 2, 2009 9,034.69. The total gain is 3,764.29%. What we called "Once year, One Trade" long strategy could achieve 32,602.09%. Trade 如下 (用的是相对于Thanksgiving 的日期,不是Calender Day):
In Day to Thx |
-21 |
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Holding time |
327 |
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Mean gain |
0.0898 |
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Gain Std |
0.1734 |
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Compound gain |
326.0210 |
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Compound mean |
0.0760 |
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Total trades |
79 |
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In time |
In price |
Out time |
Out price |
Gain(%) |
Compound |
10/24/1928 0:00 |
256.04 |
9/6/1929 0:00 |
376.29 |
46.97 |
1.47 |
10/30/1929 0:00 |
230.98 |
9/5/1930 0:00 |
240.37 |
4.07 |
1.53 |
10/29/1930 0:00 |
194.35 |
9/4/1931 0:00 |
132.62 |
-31.76 |
1.04 |
10/28/1931 0:00 |
104.25 |
9/2/1932 0:00 |
76.77 |
-26.36 |
0.77 |
10/26/1932 0:00 |
60.32 |
9/1/1933 0:00 |
103.66 |
71.85 |
1.32 |
10/25/1933 0:00 |
91.35 |
8/31/1934 0:00 |
92.86 |
1.65 |
1.34 |
10/24/1934 0:00 |
94.65 |
9/6/1935 0:00 |
130.75 |
38.14 |
1.85 |
10/30/1935 0:00 |
140.49 |
9/4/1936 0:00 |
167.04 |
18.90 |
2.21 |
10/28/1936 0:00 |
174.47 |
9/3/1937 0:00 |
172.17 |
-1.32 |
2.18 |
10/27/1937 0:00 |
132.78 |
9/2/1938 0:00 |
141.38 |
6.48 |
2.32 |
10/26/1938 0:00 |
153.52 |
9/1/1939 0:00 |
135.25 |
-11.90 |
2.04 |
10/25/1939 0:00 |
154.07 |
9/6/1940 0:00 |
133.12 |
-13.60 |
1.76 |
10/30/1940 0:00 |
132.19 |
9/5/1941 0:00 |
127.17 |
-3.80 |
1.70 |
10/29/1941 0:00 |
119.6 |
9/4/1942 0:00 |
106.39 |
-11.05 |
1.51 |
10/28/1942 0:00 |
113.86 |
9/3/1943 0:00 |
137.18 |
20.48 |
1.82 |
10/27/1943 0:00 |
138.69 |
9/1/1944 0:00 |
147.16 |
6.11 |
1.93 |
10/25/1944 0:00 |
146.58 |
8/31/1945 0:00 |
174.29 |
18.90 |
2.29 |
10/24/1945 0:00 |
185.52 |
9/6/1946 0:00 |
179.96 |
-3.00 |
2.23 |
10/30/1946 0:00 |
164.21 |
9/5/1947 0:00 |
177.13 |
7.87 |
2.40 |
10/29/1947 0:00 |
183.21 |
9/3/1948 0:00 |
184.35 |
0.62 |
2.42 |
10/27/1948 0:00 |
189.76 |
9/2/1949 0:00 |
179.38 |
-5.47 |
2.28 |
10/26/1949 0:00 |
187.7 |
9/1/1950 0:00 |
218.42 |
16.37 |
2.66 |
10/25/1950 0:00 |
231.39 |
8/31/1951 0:00 |
270.25 |
16.79 |
3.10 |
10/24/1951 0:00 |
263.5 |
9/5/1952 0:00 |
276.5 |
4.93 |
3.26 |
10/29/1952 0:00 |
265.72 |
9/4/1953 0:00 |
264.34 |
-0.52 |
3.24 |
10/28/1953 0:00 |
273.35 |
9/3/1954 0:00 |
343.1 |
25.52 |
4.07 |
10/27/1954 0:00 |
356.32 |
9/2/1955 0:00 |
472.53 |
32.61 |
5.39 |
10/26/1955 0:00 |
458.4 |
8/31/1956 0:00 |
502.04 |
9.52 |
5.91 |
10/24/1956 0:00 |
485.05 |
9/6/1957 0:00 |
478.63 |
-1.32 |
5.83 |
10/30/1957 0:00 |
435.76 |
9/5/1958 0:00 |
512.77 |
17.67 |
6.86 |
10/29/1958 0:00 |
536.88 |
9/4/1959 0:00 |
652.18 |
21.48 |
8.33 |
10/28/1959 0:00 |
642.18 |
9/2/1960 0:00 |
625.22 |
-2.64 |
8.11 |
10/26/1960 0:00 |
566.6 |
9/1/1961 0:00 |
721.19 |
27.28 |
10.32 |
10/25/1961 0:00 |
697.24 |
8/31/1962 0:00 |
609.18 |
-12.63 |
9.02 |
10/24/1962 0:00 |
558.06 |
9/6/1963 0:00 |
735.37 |
31.77 |
11.88 |
10/30/1963 0:00 |
760.5 |
9/4/1964 0:00 |
848.31 |
11.55 |
13.26 |
10/28/1964 0:00 |
875.98 |
9/3/1965 0:00 |
907.97 |
3.65 |
13.74 |
10/27/1965 0:00 |
956.32 |
9/2/1966 0:00 |
787.69 |
-17.63 |
11.32 |
10/26/1966 0:00 |
793.09 |
9/1/1967 0:00 |
901.18 |
13.63 |
12.86 |
10/25/1967 0:00 |
888.18 |
9/6/1968 0:00 |
921.25 |
3.72 |
13.34 |
10/29/1969 0:00 |
855.86 |
9/4/1970 0:00 |
771.15 |
-9.90 |
12.02 |
10/28/1970 0:00 |
754.45 |
9/3/1971 0:00 |
912.75 |
20.98 |
14.54 |
10/27/1971 0:00 |
845.36 |
9/1/1972 0:00 |
970.05 |
14.75 |
16.69 |
10/25/1972 0:00 |
952.51 |
8/31/1973 0:00 |
887.57 |
-6.82 |
15.55 |
10/24/1973 0:00 |
966.51 |
9/6/1974 0:00 |
677.88 |
-29.86 |
10.90 |
10/30/1974 0:00 |
659.34 |
9/5/1975 0:00 |
835.97 |
26.79 |
13.83 |
10/29/1975 0:00 |
850.83 |
9/3/1976 0:00 |
989.11 |
16.25 |
16.07 |
10/27/1976 0:00 |
948.14 |
9/2/1977 0:00 |
872.31 |
-8.00 |
14.79 |
10/26/1977 0:00 |
801.54 |
9/1/1978 0:00 |
879.33 |
9.71 |
16.22 |
10/25/1978 0:00 |
832.55 |
8/31/1979 0:00 |
887.63 |
6.62 |
17.30 |
10/24/1979 0:00 |
806.83 |
9/5/1980 0:00 |
940.96 |
16.62 |
20.17 |
10/29/1980 0:00 |
932.59 |
9/4/1981 0:00 |
861.68 |
-7.60 |
18.64 |
10/28/1981 0:00 |
838.38 |
9/3/1982 0:00 |
925.13 |
10.35 |
20.57 |
10/27/1982 0:00 |
1006.07 |
9/2/1983 0:00 |
1215.45 |
20.81 |
24.85 |
10/26/1983 0:00 |
1252.44 |
8/31/1984 0:00 |
1224.38 |
-2.24 |
24.29 |
10/24/1984 0:00 |
1213.01 |
9/6/1985 0:00 |
1335.69 |
10.11 |
26.75 |
10/30/1985 0:00 |
1368.73 |
9/5/1986 0:00 |
1899.75 |
38.80 |
37.12 |
10/29/1986 0:00 |
1845.47 |
9/4/1987 0:00 |
2561.38 |
38.79 |
51.52 |
10/28/1987 0:00 |
1846.49 |
9/2/1988 0:00 |
2054.59 |
11.27 |
57.33 |
10/26/1988 0:00 |
2173.36 |
9/1/1989 0:00 |
2752.09 |
26.63 |
72.60 |
10/25/1989 0:00 |
2659.22 |
8/31/1990 0:00 |
2614.36 |
-1.69 |
71.37 |
10/24/1990 0:00 |
2494.06 |
9/6/1991 0:00 |
3011.63 |
20.75 |
86.18 |
10/30/1991 0:00 |
3061.94 |
9/4/1992 0:00 |
3281.93 |
7.18 |
92.38 |
10/28/1992 0:00 |
3235.73 |
9/3/1993 0:00 |
3633.93 |
12.31 |
103.74 |
10/27/1993 0:00 |
3672.49 |
9/2/1994 0:00 |
3885.58 |
5.80 |
109.76 |
10/26/1994 0:00 |
3850.59 |
9/1/1995 0:00 |
4647.54 |
20.70 |
132.48 |
10/25/1995 0:00 |
4783.66 |
9/6/1996 0:00 |
5659.86 |
18.32 |
156.75 |
10/30/1996 0:00 |
6007.02 |
9/5/1997 0:00 |
7822.41 |
30.22 |
204.12 |
10/29/1997 0:00 |
7498.32 |
9/4/1998 0:00 |
7640.25 |
1.89 |
207.98 |
10/28/1998 0:00 |
8372.74 |
9/3/1999 0:00 |
11078.45 |
32.32 |
275.19 |
10/27/1999 0:00 |
10302.76 |
9/1/2000 0:00 |
11238.78 |
9.09 |
300.19 |
10/25/2000 0:00 |
10395.66 |
8/31/2001 0:00 |
9949.75 |
-4.29 |
287.32 |
10/24/2001 0:00 |
9341.4 |
9/6/2002 0:00 |
8427.2 |
-9.79 |
259.20 |
10/30/2002 0:00 |
8363.95 |
9/5/2003 0:00 |
9503.34 |
13.62 |
294.51 |
10/29/2003 0:00 |
9747.05 |
9/3/2004 0:00 |
10260.2 |
5.26 |
310.01 |
10/27/2004 0:00 |
9888.25 |
9/2/2005 0:00 |
10447.37 |
5.65 |
327.54 |
10/26/2005 0:00 |
10377.39 |
9/1/2006 0:00 |
11464.15 |
10.47 |
361.84 |
10/25/2006 0:00 |
12127.24 |
8/31/2007 0:00 |
13357.74 |
10.15 |
398.56 |
10/24/2007 0:00 |
13675.58 |
9/5/2008 0:00 |
11220.96 |
-17.95 |
327.02 |