Fed's Yellen says case for interest rate hike has strengthened

rightonmoney

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-yellen-says-case-interest-140001844.html

Reuters        August 26, 2016
By Jason Lange and Ann Saphir

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug 26 (Reuters) - The case for raising U.S. interest rates has strengthened in recent months because of improvements in the labor market and expectations for moderate economic growth, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday.

Yellen did not indicate when the U.S. central bank might raise rates, but her comments reinforced the view that such a move could come later this year. The Fed has policy meetings scheduled in September, November and December.

Speaking at a three-day international gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Yellen said the "U.S. economy was nearing the Federal Reserve's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability."

"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," Yellen said in prepared remarks.

She added that the Fed still thinks future rate increases should be "gradual."

The Fed raised rates in December, its first hike in nearly a decade, but it has held off further increases so far this year due to a global growth slowdown, financial market volatility and generally tepid U.S. inflation data.

Investors currently see an 18 percent probability the Fed will raise rates at its September policy meeting and a 53 percent chance of an increase in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Yellen's comments, by failing to lay out a clear roadmap for what the Fed needs to see to raise rates, will likely not convince some investors that a rate increase is imminent, in part because Fed policymakers are seen as sharply divided over whether to increase rates soon or take a more cautious approach.

Yellen was speaking on Friday at a Fed conference on designing new monetary policy frameworks, with central bankers eager to find new ways to stimulate economies even after they have cut rates to near zero and flooded banks with money.

She devoted much of her speech to outlining how the Fed may deal with future recessions now that many economists and Fed officials believe that an aging population and other dynamics appear to be slowing U.S. economic growth over the long term.

Because slower growth means future U.S. interest rates will likely also need to be lower on average, some analysts have suggested that the Fed will have less room to fight future recessions because there will be less room to cut rates.

Such a view is "exaggerated," Yellen said, because the Fed will be able to use bond purchases and forward guidance to ease conditions. It may also want to explore other options, including broadening the range of assets it can purchase, raising the inflation target, or targeting nominal GDP, she said.

(Reporting by Jason Lange and Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir in Washington; Editing by Paul Simao)

rightonmoney

老太太讲话内容出来了，市场开始拉升

bokchoy888

next time, she will say ,  " Case for raising rates has  strengthened  FURTHER'in recent months'

rightonmoney

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-8-26 09:19 AM
next time, she will say ,  " Case for raising rates has  strengthened  FURTHER'in recent months'

那再下次呢？

bokchoy888

rightonmoney 发表于 2016-8-26 09:23 AM
那再下次呢？

next time, she will say ,  " Case for raising rates has  strengthened  A BIT FURTHER ' in recent months'   

rightonmoney

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-8-26 09:27 AM
next time, she will say ,  " Case for raising rates has  strengthened  A BIT FURTHER ' in recent m ...

白菜兄连下两次的讲稿都准备好了！

源济

acoust

lakeFJ

源济

全球著名机构点评耶伦讲话
2016年08月26日 23:14   新浪美股

　　新浪美股讯 北京时间26日晚消息，美联储主席珍妮特-耶伦（Yellen）从美东时间上午10点开始发表讲话。耶伦称，最近几个月以来，再次加息的理由已经增强。劳动力市场状况“稳固”。预计经济温和增长，就业市场将继续强化，通胀率将继续提高。耶伦表示，美国经济已接近美联储设定的全面就业与价格稳定目标。

　　【高盛(165.97, 0.07, 0.04%)：还是得看8月非农就业数据】高盛分析师Jan Hatzius：耶伦的讲话提高了美联储在9月份FOMC货币政策会议上加息的可能性，但任何行动都将取决于9月2日发布的美国8月份非农就业数据。

　　【法兴银行：联储希望市场押注今年加息】法兴银行对此表示，耶伦的讲话大致符合预期，“我们实际上认为她并不会暗示FOMC将在9月份加息”，但耶伦刚好为美联储将宜早不宜迟地加息敞开大门；美联储希望市场开始押注FOMC将在2016年加息，使得12月份加息的可能性略微超过50%。

　　【富国银行(48.51, 0.13, 0.27%)：耶伦意为9月加息做铺垫】富国银行首席策略师Brian Jacobsen：耶伦讲话的关键是“我相信上调联邦基金利率的可能性已经在最近数月里增强”，耶伦希望为FOMC在9月份加息做铺垫，但可能只会增强美联储在11月份或12月份加息的可能性。

　　【格罗斯：若8月非农强劲 则9月加息】耶伦讲话之后，“债王”格罗斯接受采访表示，耶伦的经济“可能从来就没有再正常过”。美联储正为诞生更大的资产泡沫创造可能。他还认为，若9月2日发布的美国8月份非农就业报告表现强劲，则预计美联储9月会加息。

　　【法国农业信贷：讲话没有改变市场观点】该行认为，市场仍在猜测下一次美国加息的时机，因为耶伦的讲话对于美联储近期政策前景提及有限；高收益率和大宗商品货币领涨，因为耶伦的讲话没有改变市场观点，即美联储加息将非常谨慎。

　　【CRT资本：加息预期增强 关键在经济数据】CRT策略师Ian Lyngen撰写报告称，虽然耶伦的基调“大体符合”预期，美债市场中的短债起初人气受到打压，两年和五年期债券表现落后；她注重“渐进”加息的策略的确预示更低的潜在利率终值（或者至少是花更长时间才能达到终值利率）；耶伦讲话重申了FOMC在年底前加息的愿望，不过也告诫称将依赖于经济数据情况。

　　【花旗：耶伦透露的信息绝非无足轻重】花旗分析师称，虽然市场之前的普遍预期是耶伦在杰克逊霍尔的讲话会是一种相对而言不置可否的论调，但她的讲话绝不是无足轻重。耶伦的讲话并不特别鹰派，与近期美联储官员的论调类似。

　　【荷兰国际(12.14, -0.07, -0.57%)集团：加息更可能了 但仅仅是可能】荷兰国际集团（ING）首席国际经济学家Rob Carnell称，耶伦在央行杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话增大了美联储年内加息的可能性，但并不意味着美联储年内一定会加息。耶伦的讲话中充满着一系列的提醒，也表明了，除非数据继续走高，否则9月加息对市场而言并不合适。

　　【麦格理银行：不会改变今年加息的预期】麦格理策略师Thierry Wizman在电话采访中表示，美联储加息预期在耶伦讲话之后一成不变。美联储主席耶伦的讲话都是空乏之言，可能不会改变今年加息的预期。也就是12月份是最有可能的加息时机。

　　“美联储通讯社”希森拉特：耶伦的讲稿透露了美联储将在未来数周或数月内提高短期利率。

　　日本三菱东京日联银行：美联储在9月份加息是十拿九稳的押注。

Hutong9999