对熊的劝告

Control_Risk

两个星期前,我见胡同大多数贴子看熊,就发了个贴子提醒大家一下.http://hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=31928&highlight=%2Bcontrol\_risk
      现在两星期过去了,股市也涨了,看熊的贴子并不见减少. 其实在两星期前光从图上看,股市是可上可下, 可是现在已经有效突破了,图形依然是higher high,higher low, 这时候要做熊,就要小心了. 我知道很多技术指标指向overbought,  但是这次很可能会不准. 理由是上次股市大跌时oversold信号不准. 不是说因此不相信技术指标, 而是说不同寻常的大跌后,可能会有一次不同寻常的反弹.
     另外一个我看牛的原因是人们对Obama,他的团队 以及他的经济激励计划抱有很大的希望. Obama的经济激励计划和上次的救市的计划有着本质的不同: 上次是治标,救烂企业.从经济上说,投下的钱有可能打水漂; 从道德上说, 有违资本主义原则. 而Obama的计划搞基建,增加就业机会,受益的是大众,不是几个公司. 这个罗斯福新政以来最大的经济激励计划还是给人们很大希望的. 华尔街炒的就是希望,无论Obama画的这个饼能不能充饥,这个饼现在是一个炒做的题材.
    我对熊的建议是最少也要等到Obama就职,看看1月20号后有没有sell on news, 或者等趋势变了,至少要看到一个lower high 或 lower low. 熊现在要做的是要等,不要急于进场,要等到长期趋势和中期趋势一致时,现在明显是相违背的.
     我自己还是拿着vix puts. 12月5号买进VIX JAN 45 put @1.35, 12月8号买进VIX FEB 40 put @1.50, 12月17号买进VIX JAN 40 put @0.6. 星期五有个很好玩的事情, 有一段时间VIX FEB 40 竟然和VIX JAN 40一样价格, VIX FEB 45 竟然比VIX JAN 45还便宜. 我把一月的都出了,想换成二月的,结果因为spreads的关系,VIX FEB 45拿到了相同的价格,而VIX FEB 40拿不到. 想等等pullback,结果vix越走越低,虽然尾盘vix大幅上涨,vix put价格并不降,就买不回来了. 不过VIX JAN 40出在3.70,手上的put都是free的了. 如果下星期大盘有pullback,我还会用手上的利润买回一些.
     Don't be greedy. 我的理解是想要抓底或抓顶是greedy, let profit run 不是greedy. 为什么? 你看, 我在等市场转向,想把手上的利润还给市场一些,你说我贪吗?:" /> [ 本帖最后由 Control_Risk 于 2009-1-4 06:02 编辑 ]

Control_Risk

It's just VIX. You can get vix option price on Yahoo finance, symbol is ^vix, then click option.

stone

基本同意

Control_Risk

vxn没有option交易.

弹棉花

基本同意，或许会有回调，但未必马上转熊。

ppteam

Obama's new policy won't change a thing. It's just bear market rally, that's all.

Fan8an

 

stockhq

totally agree

I can picture the news stories for the next couple of weeks being "Obama administration releases plan for first 100 days" --- "plan includes massive hiring of 1,000,000 workers to build bridges and other infrastructure" --- "Dow up 6% for the year -- 2009 is a great buying opportunity according to Warren Buffett."

原帖由 ppteam 于 2009-1-4 11:58 发表 Obama's new policy won't change a thing. It's just bear market rally, that's all.

soulvirus

 

 

原帖由 stockhq 于 2009-1-4 12:55 发表 totally agreeI can picture the news stories for the next couple of weeks being "Obama administration releases plan for first 100 days" --- "plan includes massive hiring of 1,000,000 workers to build ...

CoolMax

原帖由 ppteam 于 2009-1-4 11:58 AM 发表 Obama's new policy won't change a thing. It's just bear market rally, that's all.

 

 

Too many wishful thinkings! Where is the so-called Santa Rally?

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2009-1-4 17:43 编辑 ]

CoolMax

原帖由 stockhq 于 2009-1-4 12:55 PM 发表 totally agreeI can picture the news stories for the next couple of weeks being "Obama administration releases plan for first 100 days" --- "plan includes massive hiring of 1,000,000 workers to build ...

 

How about built a elevator to the Moon!hhh!

 

老秋就再也不用放卫星了。

Control_Risk

原帖由 CoolMax 于 2009-1-4 17:10 发表     Too many wishful thinks! Where is the so-called Santa Rally?

There was Santa Rally for me. VIX 降了很多.

Persistance

Thanks for your post!!! MMs now well control the market. Don't do extreme bet.

markcoursey

:(13): :(13): :(13): :(13): :(13): hoho overB OR S do not fit trending!!!!!! :(121): :(121):

shawnmarx

dividend_growth

原帖由 CoolMax 于 2009-1-4 17:12 发表   How about built a elevator to the Moon!hhh!   老秋就再也不用放卫星了。

Space Elevator可能就是下一个大泡沫。:(109)::(109)::(109):