找回密码
 注册
搜索
查看: 3884|回复: 20

[讨论] 熊熊准备收新年礼物

[复制链接]
发表于 2009-1-1 09:27 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


不知大家注意到一个规律没有?从十月开始,十月、十一月、十二月都是月初猛跌,月尾猛拉。在这同期发生了什么事呢?周三的Financial Times说,今年头十个月Hedge Fund流出资金共430亿美元,11月320亿,12月估计有800亿。因此,对大盘这样明显有规律的走法的一种解释是,MM在月初出货,在月尾托盘做账。其中,10月份尤其无序,月初大盘猛跌,且上下震荡,显示MM也是蒙头转向,手足无措。因为实际上今年上半年Hedge Fund的资金都是净流入,真正的大量赎回是从10月份开始的,所以MM遇到了新问题,也被打懵了。月尾拉抬也十分明显,本月底尤其明显(尽管幅度小于上两个月),周三明明大盘已严重超买,但是大盘就是不回调,甚至连一点震荡都没有。不过MM十分狡猾,前两次10月底大家以为是选举行情,11月底大家以为是感恩节,MM用这样的手法蒙蔽了大家的眼睛,那这回算又什么呢?对比07年底的最后几个交易日,实际上大盘已经开始下跌,因为那时MM没有这么迫切的需要做账,现在则是生死存亡的问题。这次MM也拉的很艺术,正好拉到比11月底略高一点的位置,显示MM在如此困难情况下的光辉业绩。另外一个特点是,这几个月虽然套路一样,但是波幅越来越小,显示MM已经越来越驾轻就熟,应付自如了。
回到老秋最近放的卫星,其实没错,技术图上看,显示大盘在顶部区域,只是这个趋势出现的时机不对,已经到了12月中旬,又是节日期间,交易量萎缩,所以大盘跌到半中腰又被生生拉起来了,一直拉到严重超买,这个时候TA不管用了。但是吃兴奋剂是会伤身体地,等到新年伊始再看MM的熊样!所以熊熊们准备接收老秋送给大家的新年礼物吧,不过要见好就收。牛牛们也不用伤心,顺势而为,机会永远都会有的。
抛个砖头给大家拜年!
发表于 2009-1-1 09:37 AM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 10:06 AM | 显示全部楼层
 
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 10:31 AM | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 10:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 10:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
 
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 10:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
在偶爸妈就职之前,石油要拉高出货!
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 12:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
照这个理论,怎么解释11月21号的低点呢,证据不足
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-1 12:58 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 8# coral08 的帖子

市场是决定性力量,只是这几个月月初和月尾有明显人为痕迹,特别是月尾,月尾拉得过高不符合大市的实际情况,所以月初下跌本身也是情理之中的,往后的走势当然由市场决定。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 01:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 01:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
Happy New Year
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 02:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 02:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 07:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
PPPP
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 07:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
 
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 08:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
让Volume去投票吧!
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-1 09:19 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 过山车 于 2009-1-1 09:27 发表 不知大家注意到一个规律没有?从十月开始,十月、十一月、十二月都是月初猛跌,月尾猛拉。在这同期发生了什么事呢?周三的Financial Times说,今年头十个月Hedge Fund流出资金共430亿美元,11月320亿,12月估计有800 ...

请问你说的这个hedge fund流出资金是指的流出减去流入,(net)还是没有算流入啊?因为如果指的流出减去流入的话很不make sense。12月份那么多,股市早垮了。可如果单单只是统计流出的资金量,没考虑流入的资金,那样这个数据也没有意义啊。还有,“11月320亿,12月估计有800亿”。我真的很怀疑这个数据来源。11月才320亿大盘都跌成那个样子了,12月如果流出800个亿的话怎么可能还上涨呢?要知道资金流出如果大于流入的话一定是跌的呀。卖的比买的多,不跌才怪呢。

多谢楼主转的文章,可是对其中的数据很是怀疑。

回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-2 12:13 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 17# yingying 的帖子

Sorry, here is the whole article. I read it from the newspaper. Now I have found it from online for you. Note the following sentence: "There are $57bn of redemptions that we know are in, that are not reflected yet," he said. Money flows out of hedge funds at record rate By Deborah Brewster in New York Published: December 31 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 31 2008 02:00 Investors pulled a net $32bn (£22bn) from hedge funds last month, making 2008 the first year in their recorded history that the funds have had significant outflows and ending the industry's 18 years of asset growth. Money has been taken out of funds following every strategy, even those - such as macro funds - which were showing returns, according to data from fund trackers Hedge Fund Research. The funds enjoyed net inflows for the first part of the year, even as the financial crisis hit and traditional mutual funds began to show outflows. However, in September a tide of redemptions began, according to TrimTabs, another fund tracker. Conrad Gann, chief operating officer of TrimTabs, said: "We estimate outflows in November were $32bn, and there is an additional pipeline of redemptions that have not been filled, there could be $80bn [of redemptions] in December. "There are $57bn of redemptions that we know are in, that are not reflected yet," he said. Mr Gann said it was difficult properly to estimate outflows for coming months because hedge funds had different redemption cycles. In recent months funds have also tried to halt outflows by limiting or suspending investor withdrawals. This means that data on outflows, which reflect actual repayments to investors, understates the true picture. Some funds, such as Chicago-based Grosvenor Capital, have split their assets into liquid and non-liquid baskets, which has made it harder for investors to get their money back immediately. This is the first year since at least 1990 that hedge funds have seen a drop in assets. The combination of performance losses and investor redemptions pushed industry assets down by $500m during the year, to $1,500bn at the end of October, according to HFR. Hedge funds lost an average of 19 per cent in the 11 months to the end of November, it said. That loss easily eclipses the 1.5 per cent lost in 2002, the only previous annual loss since records began in 1990. In the 11 months to November, Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 37 per cent. The funds had outflows of $43bn for the 10 months to the end of October, according to HFR. With TrimTabs' estimate of further significant redemptions for November and December, the funds will show outflows of more than $100bn for the full year. In 1994, the only previous time they had outflows, the figure was $1m. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8bdfc0 ... html?nclick_check=1
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-2 12:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
Sorry I don't know why the paragraph marks are missing, but you have the link at the end of it.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2009-1-2 12:17 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 过山车 于 2009-1-2 12:13 发表 Sorry, here is the whole article. I read it from the newspaper. Now I have found it from online for you. Note the following sentence: "There are $57bn of redemptions that we know are in, that are no ...

Thank you! I saw "estimate" "could" these words. So those are not real #s.

回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

手机版|小黑屋|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2024-5-6 05:48 PM , Processed in 0.392706 second(s), 14 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

© 2001-2024 Discuz! Team.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表