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[转贴] 美元都去哪啦(加我的解读)

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发表于 2016-5-28 11:50 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


美元都去哪啦
 
来源: LordofMoney

First,  fed qe is not simply print money

So DL said is not true to recycle the money

QE is supposed to stimulate the economy by encouraging banks to make more loans. The idea is that banks take the new money and buy assets to replace the ones they have sold to the central bank. That raises stock prices and lowers interest rates, which in turn boosts investment. Today, interest rates on everything from government bonds to mortgages to corporate debt are probably lower than they would have been without QE.

but most banks slowly did that, leave most of money at Fed, just to satisfy the balance reserve

As long as  the money won't get into market, it won't cause inflation,  so most of  the  money did not (这点我同意,因为美国基本没通胀)

yet Big portion of money went to china reserve , because of trade deficit US has. and it will be like this no matter what Fed do, unless US is able to compete with China on making things (这点我也认为是这样的,很多钱去了新兴国家。那如果FED加息把钱想法子调回来,对这些国家是不是有剪羊毛的味道?)

much of QE money didn't help directly, that is why it is not effective and took so long to recover

anyhow, after years, now it  works better than before, but just not as strong as it should be.

yet cause fed balance become too huge,  yellon want to reduce it, but afraid to tell that  fed is almost broke, (这点我不知道,但他这样解释make sense to me)that is why raise rate is must

and each dollar US government make, 70 cents went to pay the interests, and democratic still want increase the benefits, those people just don't know anything

but all other countries want to do same as US, EU, China, Japan do QE, and US want to reduce, that cause dollar becomes so strong, (这点因果不知道是不是完全对,但矮子里面拔将军,加息美元该走强我也是这样认为的) break the trade balance even more and economy

that is exactly how great recession begins in 30s and 70s (这点我不知道)

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-5-28 11:51 AM | 显示全部楼层
希望胡同有更多讨论性质的帖子 
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发表于 2016-5-28 12:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 coexist 于 2016-5-28 12:58 PM 编辑

好文章。以前美元都去了新兴国家和大宗商品投机去了。现在这两样都不行了,美元大量回流,比引起美国通胀,PCI已见苗条。所以Fed急着升息缩表,黄金也蠢蠢欲动。
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发表于 2016-5-28 02:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
coexist 发表于 2016-5-28 12:56 PM
好文章。以前美元都去了新兴国家和大宗商品投机去了。现在这两样都不行了,美元大量回流,比引起美国通胀, ...

My guess once the rate hike took place in june or july, gold could resume its rally from 1200 level.
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-5-28 03:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
bokchoy888 发表于 2016-5-28 02:32 PM
My guess once the rate hike took place in june or july, gold could resume its rally from 1200 leve ...

that does not make sense.

rate hike should cause dollar to get stronger; if dollar is going to get stronger, Gold, oil should go lower instead higher. unless I think you think this is already priced in and it is going to "sell" on news type
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-5-28 03:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
coexist 发表于 2016-5-28 12:56 PM
好文章。以前美元都去了新兴国家和大宗商品投机去了。现在这两样都不行了,美元大量回流,比引起美国通胀, ...

反正现在好像都有点乱套了。啥都有点不make sense. 
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发表于 2016-5-28 03:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
风行过 发表于 2016-5-28 03:05 PM
that does not make sense.  

rate hike should cause dollar to get stronger; if dollar is g ...

IMO, market is forward looking, the move of gold right now , you can think as it is pricing in the rate hike. Plus, the logic of rate hike ==> dollar up ==> gold down is something everyone knows.
what is that famous saying , what you know , market had already price in.  
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发表于 2016-5-29 02:28 AM | 显示全部楼层
加息是怎么帮助fed收回货币?
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-5-29 09:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
Hutong9999 发表于 2016-5-29 02:28 AM
加息是怎么帮助fed收回货币?

你的利息比别人高,又相对“安全”,那他们会更愿意持有美金,美金资产。这样美金应该会涨,持有美金资产有可能会提高美国股市。
但利息高经济应该会冷却下来。经济过冷,有可能萧条之类。所以FED应该是走在钢丝绳上, walking on fine line。 也可能这一点点利息的变化根本对经济没啥质的变化。 
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发表于 2016-5-30 02:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-5-30 05:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
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