渣打银行

jamesmith

渣打银行 (HK: 2888, OTC: SCBFF)
p/b 0.44, well capitalized after $5.1 billion rights offering. new management under Winter looking to slim down the book (selling off businesses, realizing value for shareholders buying at 0.44 p/b.)
I am not sure about long term performance of the bank as a business, but i believe current price is undervalued and betting for reversion to the mean. I also like what management is doing (or said they will be doing.)

jamesmith

I started a small position at $7.7025 for SCBFF, that's roughly $59.70 HKD per share

源济

jamesmith

最近比较忙，简单说说。。。
Anyone interested in Standard Chartered, can build positions slowly. There are more write down to come and we need to wait till annual report to get a better idea how bad non-performing loans are.

Why stock drop so much recently:
1) 第三季 Non-Performing loan 大幅度增加，以后肯定还会有更多的 write down

2) Standard Chartered 生意集中在 Emerging Market, 有很多 Loan 跟Commodity 相关。 几年前太注重top line growth，发了很多债，现在Emerging Market 增长减慢, Commodity 更是凄惨，之前无脑发展的后遗症出来了。

What I like about the bank:
1) New Management under Winter is looking to fire 15000 staff (18% of total) reducing cost by $2.9B (out of $10B+ currently).
source: http://www.business-standard.com ... 115110300817_1.html

2) Mostly eliminated bank's equity derivative and investment banking division (derivative部门很难看懂，cut了减少很多不确定性)
source: http://www.theguardian.com/busin ... usiness-retail-jobs

3) Looking to slim down the loan book substantially($100 billion), 就算是 $1 book value, 卖出的时候只能拿到 50%, 现在p/b=0.42

4) 供股增加了 $5.1B 资金, 通过了最近的Bank of England压力测试(这个测试很严厉，比较信得过)

五谷

acoust