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[知识] IBD的Follow-through定义

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发表于 2008-12-3 04:53 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


有同学问IBD说Follow-through day confirmed rally啥的(http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=30236&page=1#pid313898),这里解释一下:

 

下面一段IBD的Follow Through Day的定义,供大家参考(懒得看得就看我加亮的部份就可以了),跟我的Major Accumulation Day看底部的方法有共通之处,不过不是一个概念。另外,有统计IBD的Follow-through day准确率并不高。俺以前有过讨论,有空俺找找。

 

Investor's Business Daily
All Major Bull Rallies Begin With A Follow-Through Day
Tuesday July 27, 7:00 pm ET
Jonah Keri


You hear it so much, it's almost become the naysayer's mantra: "You can't time the market."

Short and punchy? Sure. And also completely false.

 

The market's price-and-volume action gives clear signs of the market's direction. A follow-through day gives you the biggest of head starts -- timing the market's bottom.


A follow-through occurs at the earliest stages of a fledgling rally. After a significant market correction, the market will look to regain its footing. Any up day then counts as Day 1 of an attempted rally.

 

The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don't need to show much in the way of gains. As long as they don't undercut Day 1's low, the rally remains intact.

 

For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes -- the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow -- to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.

 

Though a follow-through in that span gives the strongest signal for a new rally, one that hits anywhere between Day 4 and Day 10 can work. Follow-throughs that occur after Day 10 yield lower success rates.

 

Though this method may seem esoteric at first, keep in mind it has decades of IBD research behind it.

 

To gear up for the next follow-through, study charts of past market bottoms. The Nasdaq flashed a follow-through in October 1998 which kicked off the final, furious stretch that carried stocks to huge gains.

 

Just remember: Not every follow-through triggers a huge, new bull market. But no raging bull has ever started without one.

 

After three years of harrowing losses, investors were starved for good news by the time March 2003 rolled around. On March 12 of that year, the Nasdaq fell to a low of 1253.21 before bouncing back for a 0.6% gain in swift volume (point 1). That was Day 1.

 

The Nasdaq roared ahead 4.8% in massive trade the next day (point 2). Exciting action? Sure. But you still wanted to wait for Day 4-7 to confirm the new rally.

 

On March 17, the follow-through hit on Day 4. The Nasdaq jumped 3.9% in sharply higher turnover (point 3). Volume was also above average. Though the index stumbled a bit on March 31 (point 4) and a few other times shortly after the follow-through, it never approached its prior lows. The Nasdaq would go on to gain 72% to its January 2004 peak.

 

 

 

03/27/2008 大盘回顾(Unusual VIX and Bond Patterns)

明天很关键,因为我们上周五有了所谓的IBD Follow Through Day,而这个IBD Follow Through Day表示大盘Rally能否成功据有专家研究,似乎第一周的表现非常重要,如果第一周涨的话,有三分之二的可能,大盘以后会有不错的Rally

 

发表于 2008-12-3 04:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-12-3 05:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-12-3 05:29 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-12-3 16:53 发表 有同学问IBD说Follow-through day confirmed rally啥的(http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=30236&page=1#pid313898),这里解释一下:   下面一段IBD的Follow Through Day的定义,供大家参考(懒得 ...
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发表于 2008-12-3 07:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-12-3 08:14 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 1# Cobra 的帖子

恭敬老蛇清茶一杯。辛苦了!
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发表于 2008-12-3 10:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-12-3 10:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
谢谢老蛇。
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发表于 2008-12-3 10:44 PM | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2008-12-3 11:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-12-3 11:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
哇! 蛇老大特意立专题呀!太感谢了!
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发表于 2008-12-4 02:44 AM | 显示全部楼层
thanks a lot.
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发表于 2008-12-4 07:20 AM | 显示全部楼层

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