Dumb money vs. smart money

csw2002

Oex pcr final closed at 1.76 neutral. We saw 39 millions outflow from sh and no changes to sds and spxu. Dumb short has covered 200 millions over the last 3 weeks and this is quite bearish. I am hoping for another wave of capitulation by dumb short and it should herald in the first (or second depending on if you believe the aug leg was the first) leg down of the bear market that is about to unfold.

时时是好时

csw2002 发表于 2015-11-21 03:00 AM
Oex pcr final closed at 1.76 neutral. We saw 39 millions outflow from sh and no changes to sds and s ...

谢谢老大！

qianshui

befriend

Thanks

csw2002

OEX PCR final closed at 1.12, neutral though cash close has OEX PCR at 0.77 slightly bullish. There is no change SH, but significant inflows into SDS and SPXU.

csw2002

OEX PCR final closed at 1.7 neutral. There is no change to SDS, SPXU and SH.

csw2002

OEX PCR final closed at 6.31, in extremely bearish territory. However, given the low volume, I wouldn't put too much faith into the number. What is more interesting is that SH saw 30.8 millions outflow whereas SDS saw 6.8 millions outflow. SPXU is flat. Such large outflows in SH is normally associated with a big up day (or the day after a big up day) whereas today SP500 was essentially flat. While SH outstanding shares are still very large, I think we are getting close to the dumb short capitulation I wrote about when I started this thread. With OEX OI PCR also at historically elevated level, we are close to hearing the starting gun of a significant bearish decline that would mark the end of the most excessive bull market since the Roaring 20's.

葡萄柚

这轮牛市是从2000年代初算起吗

qianshui

csw2002

OEX PCR closed on Friday at 3.11 - bearish - though given the low volume, I am not exactly thrilled with the signal. Having said that, the OEX OI PCR continues to spike and this leads me to believe a significant decline is not far off the table. SH, SDS and SPXU are all flat on Friday.

wnd4

qianshui

细水长流

thank you for sharing your thoughts and info.

csw2002

OEX PCR final adjusted closed 0.85 - weak buy - though the volume is still very small and again I find it hard to infer too much from the data. OEX PCR at cash close was also a very bullish 0.54. SH saw no change whereas SDS and SPU saw some minor inflow.

csw2002

OEX PCR Final Adjusted is at 4.4 bearish. No change to SDS, SPXU or SDS.

qianshui

luckystar2006

csw2002

OEX PCR final closed at 1.2 neutral on Wednesday and there was no change to SDS, SH or SPXU. Today OEX PCR closed at 1.02 which is still neutral. However, as I have mentioned a few times, OEX OI PCR remains elevated at a historically high level and this is quite bearish. Surprisingly, today, we saw 12.5 millions covering on SH despite a big down day. Dumb money covering on weakness indicates we have not quite bottomed. SDS saw 6.8 millions inflow and SPXU saw 1.6 millions outflow. My read is that while we are short term oversold (with another overnight rally to correct the OS condition), we have not bottomed yet.

coldcold

csw2002 发表于 2015-12-4 01:14 AM
OEX PCR final closed at 1.2 neutral on Wednesday and there was no change to SDS, SH or SPXU. Today O ...

大牛有更新吗？

csw2002

Wow, what a day. The rally, while expected, went much higher than I had expected. OEX PCR adjusted final closed at 0.97 neutral to slightly bullish. What is also worrying for bear is that OEX OI PCR dropped from 2.4 to 2 which is quite sizeable. While 2 is still quite high (and Aug crash came when OEX OI PCR was at 2). SH saw 32.8 millions outflow. SDS is flat but SPXU also saw another 30 millions outflow.