Wave learning notes from Chuxue & NL

Bayside

				Start Date	End Date	Start Price	End Price	Calendar Days	Trade Days	Price Change
I				10/9/07	3/17/08	1565.15	1276.60	160	109	-288.55
II				3/17/08	5/19/08	1276.60	1426.63	63	44	150.03
III				5/19/08	12/5/08	1426.63	776.76	200	140	-649.87
	1			5/19/08	7/15/08	1426.63	1214.91	57	39	-211.72
	2			7/15/08	8/11/08	1214.91	1305.32	27	19	90.41
	3			8/11/08	10/27/08	1305.32	848.92	77	54	-456.4
		3.(1)		8/11/08	8/25/08	1305.32	1264.86	14	10	-40.46
		3.(2)		8/25/08	8/28/08	1264.87	1300.68	3	3	35.81
		3.(3)		8/28/08	9/17/08	1300.68	1155.88	20	13	-144.8
		3.(4)		9/17/08	9/19/08	1155.88	1265.12	2	2	109.24
		3.(5)		9/19/08	10/27/08	1265.12	848.92	38	26	-416.2
	4			10/27/08	11/21/08	848.92	1078.00	25	19	229.08
		4.(a)		10/27/08	11/4/08	848.92	1007.51	8	6	158.59
		4.(b)		11/4/08	11/13/08	1007.51	820.62	9	7	-186.89
		4.(c)		11/13/08	11/21/08	820.62	1078.00	8	6	257.38
	5			11/21/08	12/5/08	1050.00	776.76	14	9	-273.24
IV
V
Note:
1	Both NL and Chuxue agree on 11/21. It is OE day, and III-4 will have the same trading days as III-2
2	NL point out a possible scenaria where III-5 will finish around Dec2-5.
	If that is true, wave 5 is compressed in time but stretched in space, similar to wave III-3.(5)
3	Price at 11/21 and 12/5 just my wild guess
4	For the incoming IV wave:
		Compared to I and II, wave III is imbalance in T & P, if wave IV gonna correct it,  it will last longer than wave II
		WaveIV won't overlap wave I, so the rebound will not be higher than 1270, probably around 1155
		Chuxue suggests always making safer bets on C or 3, so after observing IV-A and IV-B, we might get a better sense abort IV-C
5	If Wave V similar to III-3.(5), it will be extended and violent. as chuxue warns.
		need to break lows of Oct.2002, to complete this high-level cycle

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p11574292332&a=155007420




[ 本帖最后由 Bayside 于 2008-11-14 03:25 编辑 ]

ILoveRice

顶一个！

zippo

  

 

 

Thanks a million!

H_T

wow, thanks for such detailed notes

yager

建议：在图上做标记；把线的透明度减小，这样看起来清楚一些。

yager

另外把technical indicator去掉，没有什么用，只是占用空间。还不如换成$USD, $USD:$XJY之类的。

yager

总的来说老兄的工作做的很好！

yager

不过我的意见是，精确的点位和时间点不是很重要，波浪的内部结构很重要。

yager

精华！！！

H_T

NL老师来给评语了。 初学老大再来给个就全了。

maserati

Ding. People here should study more of this. NL and Chuxue laoda' skills are simply fiscinating!

cat888

tenteddies

thanks for the hard working

pan_xyang

这功课作的真棒

escortid

rnhoo

Good job.

 

我觉得 III-3-3.(1) and III-3-3.(4) overlap.

 

还有图和你的描述好像有点不一样。8/25~8/28的波我没有看到。另外图中有一个9/5~9/8的波你没有说。

chuxue

这个总结卖给BUFFET可以收退修的价钱啊。
俺这个3/12/08的帖子没人识货。 可见光炼不说是个傻把式。

garfieldking

very good. Thanks.

捷思

太好了