格罗斯：我有预感 牛市要到头了

wsjboy

格罗斯：我有预感 牛市要到头了
文 / 叶紫君 2015年05月04日 21:03:43 1

债券之王、全球最大债券基金PIMCO创始人格罗斯 (Bill Gross) 称，股市和债市的“超级牛期”已接近尾声。

格罗斯在骏利资本 (Janus Capital) 最新投资展望中写道，股市长达35年的上升期即将结束，全球央行以举债来“治愈”借贷危机的路快要走到头了。

宽松货币政策是股市及债市的能量来源，一旦“供给”停止，股市债市双泡沫将一同破裂。格罗斯建议投资者放弃寻求高回报，转而专注于“小杠杆收入”，例如他推荐的做空德国国债。

格罗斯将本次投资展望命名为《终结的预感》，并将市场周期的最后阶段与他本人的生命相比。现年71岁的格罗斯称，在步入70岁以来，他能沉重地感觉到生命终结的临近。“70岁的人读到报纸上的讣告时，会立刻想到自己，无法再带着兴趣阅读、回顾别人的人生。”

关于牛市的终结，他有同样的感想。他写道，“我差不多有了（牛市）终结的预感，长期牛市的终结是一声呜咽，而不是一声枪响。”

今年1月，格罗斯曾在2015年投资展望中警告投资者，2015年风险资产的好日子将会结束，许多资产都会出现负回报。而目前美股连攀新高，格罗斯的预言暂未实现。

今天发布的《终结的预感》中，格罗斯承认他在2013年作出牛市终结的警告是言之过早，但他强调这一次很多人和他站在同一边，包括斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒 (Stanley Druckenmiller) 、乔治·索罗斯 (George Soros) 、Ray Dalio和Jeremy Grantham在内的投资大佬近期都曾表示，金融市场估值过高或存在泡沫，奠定了未来低回报的基础。

《终结的预感》这一题目灵感来自Julian Barnes的同名小说。格罗斯认为未来很长一段时间内，实际利率都会非常低。他上月曾建议投资者小心低通胀、高资产价格的投资环境。

zhao

wsjboy

rightonmoney

wsjboy

Julian Barnes’ novel “The Sense of an Ending”

wsjboy

Bill Gross: The Bull Market 'Super-Cycle' Is Nearing Its End

May 4, 2015


Bill Gross said the bull market “supercycle” for stocks and bonds is approaching its end, as the unconventional monetary policies that have kept it alive since the financial crisis are running out.

The attempt by global central banks to cure a debt crisis with more debt doesn’t have much further to run, which will end a rally that’s lasted three and a half decades, the 71-year-old manager wrote in an investment outlook for Janus Capital Group Inc. Investors should stop focusing on price appreciation and instead look to “mildly levered income,” such as his recommendation to short German government debt, he said.

“Credit-based oxygen is running out,” Gross wrote in the outlook, titled “A Sense of an Ending,” in which he compared the final stages of the market cycle with his own mortality. “I merely have a sense of an ending, a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang.”

Gross, the manager of the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, acknowledged that his calls for the end of the bond rally in both February and April of 2013 were too early. This time around, he noted that he’s in prominent company, as investors including Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, Ray Dalio and Jeremy Grantham have cautioned that financial markets may be overpriced or bubbly, potentially setting the stage for lower returns.

Gross, who referenced Julian Barnes’ novel “The Sense of an Ending” in his outlook, said he continues to see a subdued interest rate environment for a prolonged span. He advised investors last month to leverage returns in an environment of persistently low interest rates and inflated asset prices.
‘Conveniently Forget’

The former chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. until his sudden departure in September, Gross has produced a 1.5 percent return this year through the end of April in his new fund at Janus, beating 56 percent of peers, according to data from research firm Morningstar Inc. Since he began overseeing the fund on Oct. 6, it returned 1 percent, outperforming 66 percent of peers.

Gross, a billionaire who had more than $700 million of his wealth invested in his fund at year-end, also took a swipe at his own industry.

Active asset managers “conveniently forget” that their fees haven’t fallen even as assets have multiplied by a factor of 20 since 1981, Gross wrote.

wsjboy

现在有 “The Sense of an Ending”的人很多，但是可能就是因为这个，牛市还没有结束。。。

hellofriend

wsjboy

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Wenyue

不少人都预感到要跌。

真跌吗？