a brand new one. ECA Marcellus Trust I

wsjboy

ECT, basm,eca marcellus trust i,oil&gas drllng&explrtn,cap 174.64,sh 17.60    yahoo  finviz  google  fool  
pe 5.09,alpha -45.10,beta 0.00,a_vol 91, div 19.25 130814,er 130906*,insi 14.8 -37.3,inst 6.1 -13.25,
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ECA Marcellus Trust I owns royalty interests in producing and development horizontal natural gas wells for Energy Corporation of America (ECA). The company owns royalty interests in 14 producing horizontal natural gas wells producing from the Marcellus Shale formation located in Greene County, Pennsylvania; and royalty interests in 52 horizontal natural gas development wells drilled to the Marcellus Shale formation consisting of approximately 9,300 acres held by ECA in Greene County, Pennsylvania. Its royalty interests in the producing wells entitle the company to receive 90% of the proceeds from the sale of production of natural gas attributable to ECAÂ’s interest in the producing wells; and royalty interests in the development wells allow the company to receive 50% of the proceeds from the sale of production of natural gas attributable to ECAÂ’s interest in the development wells. ECA Marcellus Trust I was founded in 2010 and is based in Austin, Texas.
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wsjboy

how do you think about it? Moderator laoda?

jamesmith

Didn't have time to take a detail look yet. This one has a termination date of March 31, 2030. So there should be 66 payments.
It is related to natural gas prices, it is not an investor's job to guess commodity price, so the larger safety of margin we can get the better. Its price has dropped significantly, that makes it more interesting,

I don't think it has a website, luckily we have SEC fillings
source: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edga ... 01_item_1._business

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/brows ... 0&hidefilings=0

wsjboy

Aug 14, 2013        0.477 Dividend
May 15, 2013        0.443 Dividend
Feb 14, 2013        0.682 Dividend
Nov 16, 2012        0.624 Dividend
Aug 16, 2012        0.602 Dividend
May 17, 2012        0.574 Dividend
Feb 16, 2012        0.594 Dividend
Nov 9, 2011        0.63 Dividend
Aug 11, 2011        0.631 Dividend
May 12, 2011        0.524 Dividend
Feb 10, 2011        0.50 Dividend
Nov 10, 2010        0.421 Dividend
Aug 12, 2010        0.272 Dividend

dividend down significantly too, therefore, it might not be a good buy, even its price down

补充内容 (2013-9-7 05:24 AM):
I was wrong, 0.272 was the oldest. The dividends were OK.

jamesmith

wsjboy 发表于 2013-9-6 05:43 PM
Aug 14, 2013        0.477 Dividend
May 15, 2013        0.443 Dividend
Feb 14, 2013        0.682 Dividend

Natural Gas is one of the most volatile commodity, and advances in economical shale fracture make Natural Gas price tank to very low prices, it is off the historical low now, but I really have no way to estimate future prices. And it is not just price alone, consumption would also have a large impact. A good thing to do would be figure out what area in US are the natural gas extracted from ECT wells consumed, and what is the historical consumption and how it is changing.

Best resource for energy related info is from EIA.

http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/xls/ngm02vmall.xls
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/table_03.pdf

jamesmith

Looked at it a bit more, ECT has hedging contracts on Natural Gas. The contracts expires at 2014, I am not sure if they will open new contracts to replace the old one. Given 66 more payments and a 2.5% quarterly discount rate, market is currently assuming an average of $0.3 dividend per quarter for the life of the trust. This is on the low side by the short dividend history of this trust. Price can go into high teens if natural gas price rise above $5. The problem still lies in the volatility of natural gas prices and it is outside of my competitive circle...