Forex/Futures ST for Week 4/22-4/26

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 01:19 PM

Let's have some bigger pictures when opening this thread ... So all views are in weekly charts.

First on indices:

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 01:24 PM

1. SPX is still above the neckline, so can't say for sure it will start its intermediate term decline.
2. A top of this level usually last couple of weeks and usually there is another high in the weekly chart.
3. RSI is still too high. It can only be lower when a few weeks' consolidation is followed with another try at the high.

The bad:
The reversal bar, if followed with a small body consolidation at the low of the bear bar would be a bad sign of further down. So let's wait and see.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 01:28 PM

DAX has gone ahead down the neckline and a consolidation below the neckline would make it as real as it can be ... also note the MACD cross over and RSI value.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 01:34 PM

RUSSELL is weaker than SPX, but it just touched MA20, if you look a previous up legs, it should try to rebound first ...
RSI is still high
But MACD has crossed over.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 01:37 PM

NIKKEI seems to be perfectly fine on the weekly chart, maybe we shouldn't have closed our long at all last week.
Our decision was based on the usual correlations of all risk assets and we were turning bearish towards SPX.

Maybe this time it's really different or maybe SPX indeed will have another attempt at the high?

befriend · 发表于 2013-4-21 07:36 PM

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:31 PM

Next on bonds ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:32 PM

US 10yr is still trying to break out the key S/R for several weeks ...
You don't think you want to bet an eminent breakout in this ... it tends to reverse at extrema in the past, so have to make sure the breakout is real before jumping in.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:33 PM

German 10yr is stronger, and is forming a large ascending triangle ... not a surprise.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:34 PM

JGB 10yr is showing no slow down of inflush of fund back into Japan, confusing ... though this is consistent with the weekly funding flow data by MOF.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:53 PM

Currency majors ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:55 PM

EURO got rejected by ma20 and a key S/R ... more consolidation here is more likely

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:56 PM

GBP/USD up trend is gone after a dojo and bear bar reversal ... consolidating at a S/R level right now.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-21 11:57 PM

AUD/USD is still in a range as we have assessed in the past.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-22 12:00 AM

USD/JPY had a scary pullback last week, but is testing previous high ... a decisive breakout means we shall long again ... looking for 110 in the coming months.