Forex/Futures ST for Week 4/15-4/19

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-15 06:46 PM

Sems that USD/JPY has found support at 95.77, the pattern looks like a bottom.

However, as usual, we shall do the higher high/higher low for a long.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-15 06:57 PM

Bargin hunters are in USD/JPY and NIKKEI to a lesser degree ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-15 07:01 PM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-4-15 03:09 PM 编辑

Finally, a bad day for our portfolio ... This is the price we have to pay for buy and hold in trend following. That's why we have 50% bond in it ...

Interestingly, even the most conservative PPTRX is negative! Maybe this is telling something about the market???

Also on the positioning strategy. We certainly is paying attention to the market actions and is controlling the risk in the original design of the portfolio. However, the idea is to trade on the right side of the curve. This guideline tells us to look for a lower high to confirm a top (intermediate term) in the trading positions, i.e. UJPIX, the leveraged NIKKEI fund (FUTURES: NKD), and to a lesser degree, PETDX, the Dow Jones Real Estate Real Return fund (ETF: IYR). That's why we do not sell on the first pullback to minimize trading times. Of course, the design allows us to resist the bear assault better so the drawdown is not as great as in a typical trading account.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 01:34 AM

Looks like JGB is breaking out the down trend ... implication for NKD and JPY?

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 01:38 AM

First attempt at the S/R is a failure in both NKD and JPY ...

hahaa · 发表于 2013-4-16 01:03 PM

zwk3, +702, st 685.5

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 02:04 PM

Rebound in NKD and non-USD are healthy ...

However, we have to make a call on whether to keep holding NKD or not for another night. I'm watching whether there is a top in the 5h chart ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 02:06 PM

Looking at USD/JPY ... it has yet to make a higher high on the 1h chart.

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 02:48 PM

EURO has broken out! So investors have decided to chase higher yields ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 03:38 PM

Looks like we are running out of time ... guess have to wait for tomorrow to see how things eventually end ... or we are back to up/down pattern again to melt up ...

Overall, the pullback in NKD is quite healthy ... this can be said on USD/JPY as well, sort of arguing on behalf of BOJ/MOF of Japan that the exchange rate is controlled by market forces ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 03:44 PM

He He ... once again, bears will be helping bulls to make a new high, it seems ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 03:45 PM

But it's key time for SPX on the 1h chart ... ma20 is right here and the downtrend line ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 03:59 PM

Well ... MM has given bears another chance to add short, which is good for us trend followers!

greenback · 发表于 2013-4-16 04:02 PM

So we are holding positions for another day. Once again, we are trying to avoid over-trading, which is a very bad habit for maintaining a portfolio ...